It requires a degree of certainty about future food safety and animal welfare standards, and indeed laws regarding environmental protection, Agricultural Policy (CAP), (though CAP is not static), and despite enormous criticism of CAP regulations and hefty objections to associated subsidies. As is well documented, the agri-food sector has sought written reassurances from the government, but has received nothing more than ‘warm words’. The latter is rather unsurprising given respect of what trade relationships the UK does want to put in place with the EU, or indeed the rest of the world, with less than two months to go before 29 March. Indeed the other key consideration is that the future trade agreement, with the ‘transition period’ until the end of 2020 looking woefully inadequate, when one considers that Canada/ EU CETA agreement took 10 years to negotiate, and was almost scuppered by just a few Belgian dairy farmers.
For all that some of the pro-Brexit fraternity proclaim that the UK can above all from those harking back to World War II and the period before Britain joined the EU. For example readers may like to read up on how much Britain was dependent on the Lend Lease agreement during World War II to maintain supplies of food and other materials, and how many US merchant seamen died in delivering those supplies. Then it is worth noting that Britain was in fact the largest recipient of US aid under the Marshall Plan ($2.7 Bln), as against just $1.7 Bln for Germany. However in contrast to Germany it did not invest this in upgrading and/ or rebuilding industry and infrastructure, and diverted it instead to maintain the still extant ‘Sterling Area’, and (sic) maintaining imports of food, tobacco and lumber. Roll forward to the 1960s and early 1970s, choice terms at a local UK supermarket, green grocer or butcher. Then consider whether today’s consumers who are used to having a very wide choice of fruit and vegetables available 365 days per annum would accept a sizable reduction in choice, or only at substantially higher see a lowering of imported food standards, which would have major spectrum of goods).
READERS MAY LIKE TO READ UP ON HOW MUCH BRITAIN WAS DEPENDENT ON THE LEND LEASE AGREEMENT DURING WORLD WAR II TO MAINTAIN SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND OTHER MATERIALS...
To be sure, the UK does import goods of all types from non-EU countries, and therefore businesses have the technology largely in place to deal with the additional customs and regulatory paperwork. The point remains that ca. 50% of current UK physical trade is conducted with the EU, and as long as agreed standards are adhered to, then all such paperwork is waived, and thus facilitates largely frictionless trade. Whatever arrangements are entered into post Brexit will involve a higher administrative burden, i.e. an may well drive down some prices, but will almost certainly be far more costly in terms of business failures and lost jobs.
Marc Ostwald E:
marc.ostwald@admisi.com T: +44(0) 20 7716 8534
21 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | January/February 2019
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