Chart 2: 7 Year US Corn Yield
190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110
2017 trendline forecast 178.8 2018 trendline forecast 183.3
Speed Breeding is seen, therefore, as another major progressive tool for scientists to use in collaboration with other modern breeding technologies accelerating the rate of crop improvement.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Harvest Year
Source: USDA
The challenges surrounding agriculture and global production of food have always been significant but with rising global populations and increasingly scarcer supply of resources, the challenge intensifies. Not only do we need to produce more, but we need to do with less, whilst reducing our impact of monoculture and intensified practices. Plant breeding and the scientific development of new varieties, is at the forefront of modern genetic technology and vitally important to safeguarding of future food supplies.
Following a period of stagnant growth in breeding programs, developments since 2010 have been stark as per the above mentioned yield improvements. Breeders are very optimistic commenting that current programmes are only scratching the surface of what is possible, with current progress still at bottom of the yield curve. Systems such as Genomic Selection have been revolutionary in allowing quick and efficient forecasting of genetic traits. This has helped breeders to target and estimate breeding values and successfully score new breeding candidates through statistical models, reducing the number of laboratory crosses needed. As a result, this has dramatically enhanced the efficiency of breeding programmes, reduced the costs and led to a higher rate of genetic gain.
In last month’s edition of ADMISI’s Ghost in the Machine, I wrote a piece on recent long term forecasts from the UN calling for 50% increase in agricultural production to meet increasing population growth. By 2050, the UN have forecasted the world to be inhabited by nearly 10 billion people, calling for an increase in production of grains and oilseeds of 436mlnt from an agricultural area that is only forecast to increase by 2%. This growing human population and changing environment has raised significant concern for global food security, prompting G20 nations to launch new initiatives such as the International Wheat Yield Partnership to collaborate research and ideas.
Previously, the slow improvement rate in plant genetics have been limited by the slow generation times of a plants reproductive cycle. Even in greenhouse environments, breeders have been limited to 2-3 generations a year, however , under new ‘Speed Breeding’ procedures; scientists have been able to significantly shorten generation times. Research and breeding programmes can now be speeded up to produce up to 6 plant generations a year in fully enclosed and controlled environment growth chambers.
Arguably the artificial modification of adding genes from other organisms is one of the most cutting edge and innovative technologies available to seed breeders. GMO, however, is without doubt one of the most widely debated innovations in science which in a ‘Concord’ like moment, has seen its development and research limited on grounds of safety. There is however a new way of artificially pushing the boundaries of genetics which scientists are cautious to protect its status and promote its safety. Gene Editing; is described as a selected cut and paste of genes from within an organisms own species, to select and promote the desired traits re-writing the coding and boost genetics. The potential, therefore for Gene Editing to strengthen disease resistance, produce higher yields and create varieties that are drought resistant is massive. Harnessing varieties that can be grown across sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to remove millions of people out of food poverty and in a location where populations are anticipated to boom.
The technology, however, is very new and equally contentious, with a debate expected in the European Court later this year. A recent journal from the European Court advocate general has however suggested that gene editing technologies should be largely exempted from EU law surrounding GM foods. Arguing that ‘organisms obtained by mutagenesis’ should not be seen as genetically modified, as such mutations could occur spontaneously in nature and do not involve the inclusion of molecules from other organisms.
As always politics will play its role in the development of the technology, with agricultural plant breeding at the cutting edge and with promise to deliver new revolutionary returns. Expectations are high therefore for new varieties that are hardier to disease, more resilient to Mother Nature and can continue to push yield expectations that answer the demands for our expanding globe.
To the crop analysts out there; 2018 US corn yield based off trend line forecasts (2010 to 2017) calls for 183.3 bpa (vs trend yield forecast in 2017 of 178.8 bpa and final yield estimate from USDA at 176.6 bpa). Basis current USDA projected corn plantings of 91mln acres and 91% harvested area produces a crop of 15.18 billion bushels or 385.56mlnt vs 14.604 billion bushels (370.98mlnt) in 2017.
George Eddell E:
george.eddell@admisi.com T: +44(0) 20 7716 8054
15 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | January/February 2018
Bushels Per Acre
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28
