IT’S IN THE DNA
The science behind the seed and development of new varieties is delivering previously unthought-of results. But safeguarding advanced new technologies will be the key to the optimisation of food production for generations to come.
In recent years Russia has evolved into the world’s biggest wheat exporter thanks to an impressive 80% yield growth from 2011 to 2017 (as mentioned in previous edition in Ghost in the Machine). Fuelled by ground-breaking advancements in plant genetics and seed breeding technologies, yield growth has rapidly increased and enabled us to produce crops previously though unimaginable.
The recent 2017 US corn season has also served to highlight the dramatic improvement in yields, plant genetics and robustness of new varieties to the stresses that Mother Nature throws our way. As a result, this seasons harvest has marked a step change in the way analysts observe climatic data and comparative seasonal history when making forecasts throughout the growing season.
Chart 1: Russian Wheat Yields
90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0
3.5 Yeild Production Area 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 2007 Source: USDA / Russian Ag Ministry 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0
Delayed planting progress, due to wet and cool conditions, prompted comparisons to 2013 where final US yield reached 158.1 bpa and average weekly crop ratings of just 63 percent good to excellent made comparisons to 2008 where final yield was 153.3 bpa. Even after thorough crop tours covering thousands of miles across the Midwest by hundreds of scouts, forecasts were still way off final yield numbers of 176.6 bpa as reported by last January’s USDA estimate.
This past year therefore, has been a tough schooling for analysts, who with the benefit of hindsight, should have focused upon 7 year yield trend forecast of 178.8bpa, than to the anecdotal climate evidence that influenced yield expectations as low as 162 bpa back in August. Since 2010, corn yields have increased 15% but this development is positively dwarfed by the change in average yields from the 1990’s of 125 bpa to this past season’s record harvest yield of 176.6 bpa.
14 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | January/February 2018
000’ MT
Yeild MT / Hectare
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