BREXIT:
“TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE, VISIBILITY IS LOW”
- Due to publication timelines, please note that this article was written before the UK Budget, and assumes that the Budget will not contain any items that are material to the Brexit negotiations -
It has been nearly 18 months since the Brexit referendum, and eight months have passed since the UK submitted its “Article 50” letter. It is not an exaggeration to suggest that in principle there has been little or no progress on any of the initial areas of negotiation, i.e. the Brexit ‘bill’, UK EU citizens’ rights and the inordinately challenging issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. The only point that is clear is that the UK will be leaving the Customs Union and Single Market, though it is unclear whether the December 14-15 EU leaders’ meeting will approve the start of negotiations on a post Brexit trade pact, and presumably some form of short-term interregnum for the period immediately after March 2019, thus allowing more time for the exact details of a long-term treaty to be ironed out.
It would appear that the recently concluded EU-Canada Trade is favoured as a template for an EU/UK treaty. However the radically different characteristics of UK and Canadian economies and their trade flows with the EU, allied with the fact that such a trade deal would apparently not cover the absolutely critical area of financial services, without any hints on how bilateral arrangements on the latter might be resolved, renders this difficult to comprehend and rather implausible as a template. For all that British, EU and foreign businesses in the UK are desperate for some clues as to their future operating parameters, an honest assessment is very simply that there is little more clarity now than there was on June 24 2016.
The observation that the two sides continue to talk ‘at’ each other, rather than ‘to’ one another remains the most valid. It is also more than evident that one of the biggest hurdles to progress remains the faction fighting over the EU, which has bedevilled the UK Conservative party for decades. Bereft of a clear mandate, which the wording of the referendum in effect precluded, and regardless of those disparate views within the Conservative party (and indeed the opposition Labour party), it was always going to be a very tall task to develop a coherent negotiating position.
IT HAS BEEN NEARLY 18
MONTHS SINCE THE BREXIT REFERENDUM, AND EIGHT MONTHS HAVE PASSED SINCE THE UK SUBMITTED ITS “ARTICLE 50” LETTER.
8 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | November/December 2017
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