In respect of agriculture, an initial agreement to divide up existing WTO import quotas, which set limits on the amount of produce that can be exported on lower tariffs, between the UK and the EU was hailed as something of a victory, has already met very stiff resistance from major agricultural exporters, such as the US, New Zealand, Argentina and Brazil. The UK / EU plan proposes that the current EU quotas be divided up on the basis of historical consumption and import patterns, but other WTO members argue that this would effectively allow both the EU and in principle the UK lower their existing commitments to other WTO members. The four aforementioned countries have argued that “Such an outcome would not be consistent with the principle of leaving other [WTO] members no worse off, nor fully honour the existing TRQ (Tariff-rate quotas) access commitments. Thus, we cannot accept such an agreement.” This serves as reminder that Trump’s talk of ‘beautiful trade deal’ with the UK will be far more hard won than his empty rhetoric has suggested. One needs to look no further than the fractious NAFTA (re-)negotiations to get an inkling of how hard the negotiations are likely to be. If import quotas for the UK, and by extension the EU, to be raised as a consequence of any WTO negotiations, there are fears that this would result in considerable job losses, due to a flood of ‘cheaper’ imports from abroad.


However this is merely the tip of the iceberg as far as agriculture goes. Without going into any detail, there is the much discussed issue of seasonal labourers in the sector, many of who come from the EU, but who would face hurdles due to post Brexit labour and immigration laws, There is the even thornier issue of farming subsidies, particularly in respect of Northern Ireland and indeed Wales, given that UK farmers currently receive some £3.0 Ban via the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which the government has promised to replace, though a new mechanism has not been established. There are then issues about food quality and safety standards, which in the case of the EU would have to be maintained, but would likely clash with standards that are in operation in countries, with whom the UK will be establishing new free trade agreements. If these were not enough of a test, there are proposals that all of this must also take climate change and environmental sustainability issues.


None of these issues are insuperable, but the scale of what needs to be achieved in what is now a very narrow window in temporal terms, underlines the enormity of the challenge, and the concern that too much time has been wasted on posturing and brinkmanship on both side of the negotiating table.


Marc Ostwald E: marc.ostwald@admisi.com T: +44(0) 20 7716 8534


11 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | November/December 2017


THE UK / EU PLAN PROPOSES THAT THE CURRENT EU QUOTAS BE DIVIDED UP ON THE BASIS OF HISTORICAL CONSUMPTION AND IMPORT PATTERNS.


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