REPORT
CAN AVIATION HIT NET ZERO?
IN THE WAKE OF VIRGIN ATLANTIC MAKING THE FIRST TRANSATLANTIC FLIGHT POWERED BY SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL, HOW REALISTIC IS THE AVIATION INDUSTRY’S PLEDGE TO GO CARBON NEUTRAL BY 2050? WORDS: DUNCAN CRAIG
Back in February 2020, when the UK aviation industry signed a pledge to cut net carbon emissions to zero by mid-century, then Heathrow Airport chief executive John Holland-Kaye reached for a memorable analogy. “I imagine it’s like it is for alcoholics,” he said. “The first step is to admit we have a problem — and then do something about it.” In such a context, perhaps
Virgin Atlantic’s transatlantic flight last November powered solely by sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) should be viewed as that first tentative night out with friends sipping alcohol-free beer. Made from a blend of waste fats and plant sugars, the innovative fuel — indistinguishable from the real stuff to the naked eye — has the potential to slash CO2 emissions by up to 70%, compared to fossil-based jet fuel, over the course of its lifecycle. “History has been made,” said
UK secretary of state for transport Mark Harper, on arrival in New York. Virgin founder Sir Richard Branson enthused: “The world will always assume something can’t be done, until you do it.” But whether the ‘chip fat
flight’, as it was labelled in some quarters, comes to be seen as a pioneering moment on the path to carbon-neutral aviation or merely a stunt to appease passengers’ burgeoning eco-consciences will depend very much on what happens next. The path to sobriety, fuel-based or otherwise, is long and hazardous.
156 The carbon-free quest certainly
isn’t premature: aviation’s role in the environmental crisis is significant — and growing. According to an international study published in the scientific journal Atmospheric Environment, approximately 3.5% of all human- driven climate change to date is attributed to flying — an impact akin to that of a large developed country. It also estimated that of the 32.6 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions generated by global aviation since 1940, half has come in the past 20 years. Galloping expansion and the complexity of the aviation industry's decarbonisation relative to other sectors means emissions will likely continue to soar for some time yet. “At current rates, aviation is expected to become one of the largest emitting sectors by 2050. We have to break the link between air travel and rising global temperatures,” said then transport secretary Grant Shapps in the foreword to the Department for Transport’s (DfT) Jet Zero strategy, launched in July 2022. The International Air Transport
Association (IATA), which itself enshrined a Fly Net Zero 2050 commitment at its annual general meeting in Boston in 2021, said in December that it expects global aviation passengers to reach a record 4.7 billion in 2024, topping the 4.5 billion of 2019 and generating just shy of a trillion dollars in airline revenue. Given the pace of the post- Covid bounceback, IATA's 10
NATIONALGEOGRAPHIC.COM/TRAVEL
billion projection for passenger numbers in 2050 suddenly appears as reachable as it is alarming. Without mitigation, that rocket-like growth trajectory would see an additional 21.2 billion tonnes of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere between now and mid-century. Thus, the imperative of
decarbonising — at the heart of which lies the SAF issue. IATA, which represents 320 airlines comprising more than 80% of global air traffic, sees sustainable fuels as a way of achieving nearly two-thirds of the reduction in emissions needed, with the other third made up of more fuel-efficient routes and aircraft, alternative propulsion technology such as electric and hydrogen, and offsetting. The UK — a self-anointed ‘SAF
superpower’ in the making — is attempting to spearhead global action on decarbonisation in the coming decade. As part of this commitment, it’s set ambitious targets through Jet Zero: a minimum of 10% SAF in the aviation fuel mix used by all airlines by 2030 (for the wider EU it’s 6%) and all domestic flights and all airport operations in England to achieve net zero by 2040. Heathrow, by far the largest
UK airport, with 79.1 million passengers in 2023, is going even further: a target of 11% SAF usage by 2030, helped by an incentive programme that covers up to 50% of any cost difference, which
currently sits at upwards of 2.5 times that of conventional jet fuel. The drive is not entirely
propelled by climatic concerns. In a slick video message shown to those aboard the ‘#Virgin100’ flight, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said SAFs could create a UK industry with a turnover of £2.5bn a year, supporting 5,000 jobs.
Fuel goals The attraction of SAF is obvious: it can be used in any concentration (all British Airways flights from Heathrow currently operate with 1%), without the need to modify either fuel infrastructure or aircraft. Derived from a broad range of sources — everything from agricultural and forestry residues to municipal waste, oils and greases — it offers greater energy security. And unlike some of the other pathways to decarbonisation, it is at least tried and tested. Since the first partial- SAF test flight in 2008, also by Virgin, nearly half a million flights have operated with some proportion in their tanks. There are, however, two major
drawbacks: there’s hardly any of it out there and there’s barely any capacity to make it. In 2023, SAF made up just 0.2% of airline fuel consumed globally, with around 600 million litres produced. If the new fuels are to do the heavy lifting decarbonisers are banking on, output needs to hit 450 billion litres by mid- century. The ambition, and challenge, is staggering.
IMAGE: GETTY
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100 |
Page 101 |
Page 102 |
Page 103 |
Page 104 |
Page 105 |
Page 106 |
Page 107 |
Page 108 |
Page 109 |
Page 110 |
Page 111 |
Page 112 |
Page 113 |
Page 114 |
Page 115 |
Page 116 |
Page 117 |
Page 118 |
Page 119 |
Page 120 |
Page 121 |
Page 122 |
Page 123 |
Page 124 |
Page 125 |
Page 126 |
Page 127 |
Page 128 |
Page 129 |
Page 130 |
Page 131 |
Page 132 |
Page 133 |
Page 134 |
Page 135 |
Page 136 |
Page 137 |
Page 138 |
Page 139 |
Page 140 |
Page 141 |
Page 142 |
Page 143 |
Page 144 |
Page 145 |
Page 146 |
Page 147 |
Page 148 |
Page 149 |
Page 150 |
Page 151 |
Page 152 |
Page 153 |
Page 154 |
Page 155 |
Page 156 |
Page 157 |
Page 158 |
Page 159 |
Page 160 |
Page 161 |
Page 162 |
Page 163 |
Page 164 |
Page 165 |
Page 166 |
Page 167 |
Page 168 |
Page 169 |
Page 170 |
Page 171 |
Page 172 |
Page 173 |
Page 174 |
Page 175 |
Page 176 |
Page 177 |
Page 178 |
Page 179 |
Page 180
