BUSINESS NEWS Tourism Insights 2026: ‘Slow start’ to year exacerbated by war. Ian Taylor reports from London


US air carryings to the UK ‘may have plateaued’


Transatlantic traffic between the US and UK may have reached a “plateau”, according to tourism data analyst David Edwards of European travel association Etoa. He noted US travel to the UK


had “surged” since 2013 off the back of a favourable sterling-dollar exchange rate and saw “an exceptionally strong rebound” from the pandemic, with US visitor numbers up 9.5% on 2019 in 2024 and a further 3.9% in 2025. The UK’s International


Passenger Survey – core source of Office for National Statistics data – showed an even bigger rise


Heathrow


in US visitors of 24% in 2024 on 2019 and a 40% rise in spending. However, the US International


Trade Administration recorded a 1.1% decline in US air passengers to the UK in February, leading Edwards to suggest visitor numbers may have “started to plateau”. Edwards described US consumer


confidence as “downbeat” and warned: “If the AI [stock market] bubble bursts, a lot of Americans will feel an awful lot less wealthy.”


Analyst tips UK outbound/inbound tourism ‘deficit’ to grow to £65bn


The UK runs a growing “deficit” in travel and tourism, leaders of the inbound and domestic travel and hospitality sectors heard last week. Alexander Göransson


(pictured), senior consultant at consumer markets analyst Euromonitor, acknowledged his remarks “would not go down well” at the Tourism Insights conference but insisted: “The UK is a net exporter of tourism.” He noted UK travellers spent


more than £87 billion overseas last year compared with inbound visitor receipts of £33 billion, resulting in


a deficit of more than £54 billion, and forecast this would increase to £65 billion by 2030. Abta has led outbound industry efforts to counter Treasury perceptions of a travel and tourism trade deficit in the UK, with estimates of the economic value of outbound travel


including holiday-related spending by travellers


before they depart. However, the Office for


National Statistics continues to present outbound and inbound spending along with an overall tourism ‘deficit’.


Demand for UK breaks ‘softens’


The outlook for UK inbound and domestic tourism has “softened” amid growing concern at fresh rises in the cost of living due to the war in the Middle East. Richard Nicholls, head of research


and forecasting at VisitBritain, reported a “slow start” to the year even before the war began when he spoke at the Tourism Insights conference in London last week. Nicholls reported international


flight arrivals were 5% down year on year in January and 6% down in February, and he warned: “The disruption to Gulf airports will have a wide impact on key markets. “Half of Australian and southeast


Asian visitors to the UK and a third of Indian visitors transit via the Gulf.” He noted arrivals from the Gulf


states accounted for £1 in every £13 spent by overseas visitors to Britain last year and said “that will decrease” because of the war.


travelweekly.co.uk Nicholls suggested “a reduction


in spending power for US visitors” due to a decline in the exchange rate of the dollar since the war began would also have an impact. Nicholls told the conference,


hosted by the Tourism Alliance: “The outlook has softened, but it’s not all down to the Iran conflict.” He said inbound visitors had been


forecast to surpass 43 million this year, up 4% on last year, but added: “The longer the crisis in the Middle East lasts, the more that will reduce.” The 2024 total of just over


41 million was on a par with 2019, with inbound visitor spending exceeding £33 billion, but Nicholls said “inflation was doing a lot of that” with spending down 9% on 2019 when allowing for inflation. He reported a 4% rise in visitors


from Europe last year but a 1% decline from long-haul markets despite a 22% increase in US visitor


Paddleboarders in Portmeirion, Wales 6%


Drop in international arrivals to UK in Feb – even before start of war


numbers on 2019, with visits from the high-spending Gulf states 4% down and from China 45% down. The volume of business trips


remained “way behind pre-Covid levels”, he added, with “routine business visits replaced by video calls”. Nicholls also noted “a pattern


of decline” in overnight domestic trips, reporting “a drop each year since Covid”. A VisitBritain survey in February


of consumer intentions to take a domestic holiday this summer showed a decline of four percentage points year on year at 49%.


26 MARCH 2026 47


PICTURE: Shutterstock/Andy Soloman


PICTURE: Crown Copyright/Visit Wales


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