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sudden bullying of distribution partners into breakneck-speed implementation”. The decade-long drive to


NDC has been driven by two key aims: first, to move to Amazon-style, personalised retailing through third-party distribution, mimicking how carriers can sell direct; second, to cut the cost of GDS distribution by diluting the grip of the GDSs on indirect sales. American suggested the


move to NDC technology would end “subpar booking and travel management experiences”. British Airways chief


executive Sean Doyle used the same language when he spoke at the Business Travel Association (BTA) conference in London last week, arguing: “For some years, the content we distribute through the indirect channel has been subpar.” BA and American are transatlantic partners. Doyle argued: “Through


NDC, we can distribute content as we can direct. We’ll have more products and price points through that channel.” He conceded the technology


is not ready, saying: “There is a tipping point and I don’t think we’re too far away from that.” Doyle also acknowledged:


“TMCs can aggregate content and bring technology and a level of support to travellers that airlines won’t.” But he made Iata members’ NDC timetable clear, saying: “Iata wants to get to modern retailing in the next seven to eight years.” After Doyle spoke, a leading


corporate travel buyer noted: “The metaphor for NDC is a pipe. Well, these pipes are leaking and there is a lot of clearing up to do.”


Economist warns: Don’t expect much from the Budget


The industry should “not expect too much” from this week’s Budget, a leading economist warned corporate travel leaders last week. Grant Thornton economist Igor


Popovic told the Business Travel Association (BTA) conference in London “the outlook is not


so great” despite the resilience of household spending proving “greater than we thought” and business leaders being “cautiously optimistic about revenue growth”. He described the UK’s public


finances as “aggravating the situation” and warned: “We don’t expect too much in the Budget. Several factors will keep up the pressure – with rising wages and the Bank of England expected to raise interest rates again.” Popovic forecast interest rates would only fall from 4.5% by mid-2023, “falling


back to 3%-3.5% over the following years to January 2026”. A rise in mortgage rates would


reduce disposable income, he said, adding food price inflation had fallen from recent highs “yet could stay high, and there is still upward pressure from other sources.” Popovic noted: “The pandemic


affected the UK economy relatively more than comparable economies.” But he told BTA members: “The downturn will be relatively shallow and the recovery begin sometime in the next year.”


TMCs’ confidence in rail ‘shot to pieces’ by strikes


Ian Taylor


Business travel confidence in Britain’s railways is “shot to pieces”, according to the head of a leading travel management company. Pat McDonagh, chief executive


of Manchester-based Clarity, told the Business Travel Association (BTA) spring conference in London last week: “Rail has been the last element of transport to recover. “The confidence of business


travel in the railways is shot to pieces because of the timetable and industrial action. We need rail to recover, but without an end to the industrial action, without the timetable coming back and punctuality improving, it is very difficult for confidence to return.” McDonagh insisted: “The priority


needs to be a timetable that works and trains need to be on time. The way it operates now, with different rail operators and duplication of resources, doesn’t make sense.” He noted the recent 5.9% rise in fares was “below inflation” but said:


46 16 MARCH 2023


It’s undermining customer confidence. We’re trying to get customers back and all it’s doing is giving people reasons not to come back.” He added: “Because of the


pandemic, if train operators want to do something we have to speak to the Department for Transport [DfT]. “The government would say it


Pat McDonagh


“It’s still an awful lot. Pricing needs to be thrown out and started again. The whole model needs changing.” Steve Montgomery, managing


director of First Group and chair of the Rail Delivery Group, told the BTA: “The rail industry is not in a place any of us wants to be. The government tells us we need to be more cost- effective because the taxpayer is picking up a bill for £2 billion a year. “We’re looking for reform and the unions are looking for pay increases.


bailed the industry out. Once we get beyond the industrial action, we know demand is there. But we need to plug this revenue gap and there isn’t an easy fix. We’re worrying about how to reduce the costs of the industry, not about how to grow.” Jacqueline Starr, Rail Delivery


Group chief executive, conceded: “We’re not in a position to talk with confidence about what we can deliver.” The government plans a new


state-owned body Great British Railways, modelled on Transport for London, to replace Network Rail, contract passenger train services, and set fares and timetables. It announced a fresh two-year


delay to development of the HS2 high-speed rail line last week.


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