BUSINESS NEWS


UK consumer confidence is tipped to soften as a result of President Trump’s actions


US tariffs fallout poses threat to travel demand


Analysis: Economic uncertainty likely to weaken UK holiday market, says Ian Taylor


The wholesale US imposition of tariffs on trade in goods last week, with the largest hikes coming into force from Wednesday, has raised the prospect of a global recession and sent stock markets plunging. The tariffs are broader and at


higher rates than expected. What does it mean for travel? A recession would inevitably hit


demand and talk of a downturn only increases the chances of this occurring. But the shorter-term impacts are likely to be contradictory. The oil price has already fallen


56 10 APRIL 2025


to its lowest in four years, with Brent crude trading below $65 a barrel this week, allowing airlines some scope to cut fares if demand falters. The exchange rate of the dollar is


bouncing around on financial markets, with sterling improving to $1.34 late last week but back at $1.28 as Travel Weekly went to press, so it’s too soon to know whether the US will become more affordable amid the economic turmoil. The most immediate impact on


business is likely to be a hold on investment – including recruitment. Employees will be more aware of their


job security and consumers more likely to be cautious. A delay in holiday booking decisions, already noted among families, may be exacerbated. Despite President Trump’s


propensity for deals, there appears a dawning realisation that these tariffs may not be a negotiating ploy. There may be some room for manoeuvre, although the fact that deals may change tariffs only adds to the uncertainty. But China’s refusal to bow to the


Continued on page 54 travelweekly.co.uk


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PICTURE: Shutterstock/Joshua Sukoff


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