BUSINESS NEWS


Energy prices are tipped to be ‘higher for a very long time’ due to the US-led war on Iran


Energy fears persist despite fragile truce


ANALYSIS: Two-week pause may not avert ‘a long crisis’, says Ian Taylor


The declaration of a two-week ceasefire in the war on Iran saw President Trump pull back from his threat to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages”. An immediate sharp fall in


the oil price reflected the global sense of relief. But fears the war would lead to a prelonged crisis have hardly been removed. For one thing, the US and Israel


have attacked Iran while in talks twice in the last 10 months. For another, reports suggest Iran has included maintenance of its control over the


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Strait of Hormuz in its proposals for ending the war – along with US withdrawal of combat forces “from all bases and points of deployment within the region” and the return of Iranian assets held since 1979. Thirdly, Israel retains the capacity


to disregard any agreement that does not match its aims. One analyst’s assessment


that “markets will breathe for at least a few days” summed up the temporary nature of any relief, while a leading economist noted: “Even if the Strait is opened, it


could take months for energy supply to revert to normal levels.” The pause followed multiple


warnings of the consequences if Trump carried out his threats to destroy “a whole civilisation”. EU energy commissioner Dan


Jørgensen warned, “this will be a long crisis” with energy prices “higher for a very long time”. French finance minister Roland Lescure noted 30%–40% of Gulf refining capacity


Continued on page 46 travelweekly.co.uk


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PICTURES: Shutterstock/Rawpixel.com, Fajar Adinda Putra


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