ANALYSIS: Third runway plans could yet be grounded, says Ian Taylor Continued from page 48


major airports. This will allow carriers to consolidate schedules to avoid last-minute cancellations “rather than wait for a [fuel] shortage to occur”. It built on the previous announcement of a relaxation of the rules if airlines “are unable to use slots due to jet fuel shortages”. Somewhat disconcertingly,


the Department for Transport (DfT) suggested this would “help cut the likelihood of last- minute flight cancellations in the event of significant disruption” – thereby acknowledging potential disruption. Similarly, a joint Foreign


Office, DfT and Department for Energy Security announcement stated “there is no current need for passengers to change their travel plans” – again, a conditional assurance. Further doubt was cast by


a report at the weekend that ground handlers’ association Aviation Services UK had warned of thousands of job losses in a letter to aviation minister Keir Mather and called for a furlough scheme to prevent airport redundancies. An intensification of the


conflict will not help and comes as the UK could face a serious economic blow if the Labour government fares so badly in assembly elections in Scotland and Wales and local elections in England on May 7 that it threatens to unseat the prime minister. Uncertainty about Keir


Starmer’s survival, the identity of a possible successor and their choice of chancellor, and the government’s political direction under a new leader would threaten a hike in UK borrowing costs and even a financial crisis. It could prove a challenging May.


Why Heathrow expansion could struggle to take off


Construction of a third runway at Heathrow could be in doubt as airlines continue to lobby against increased airport charges to pay for expansion, investors in Heathrow balk at the costs, and the plans risk losing support in government if Labour fares as badly as forecast in elections on May 7. Treasury and Department


for Transport support appeared guaranteed after chancellor Rachel Reeves triggered a revival of plans for a third runway in a speech in January 2025 when she announced: “This government supports a third runway at Heathrow and is inviting proposals to be brought forward by the summer.” She promised the government


would “move at speed” to secure consent, insisting construction could be underway by 2029 and the runway in operation by 2035. However, business newspaper


the Financial Times has reported “growing political uncertainty” over a third runway, based on sources “close


Investor confidence ‘critical’ to plans for third runway


Heathrow described “investor confidence” as “critical” to its plans for a third runway as it reported a 3.7% rise in passenger numbers to 18.9 million for the three months to March. The numbers included “an


increase in transfer passengers across Heathrow’s network following airspace closures in the


46 7 MAY 2026


touted as a possible successor to Starmer or a contender to replace Reeves as chancellor if either former Labour deputy leader Angela Raynor or Andy Burnham – currently mayor of Manchester but seeking a Parliamentary seat – become PM. The Financial Times quoted a


Heathrow


to the airport and government”. Reeves’ enthusiasm for


expansion was not shared by all in the government, with energy and climate change secretary Ed Miliband reportedly “livid” at the announcement. The chancellor’s position is


considerably weaker now than 15 months ago as economic growth stalls, inflation has returned and Keir Starmer’s days as prime minister appear numbered. At the same time, Miliband’s


position has strengthened despite rising energy prices and he is openly


Middle East”. However, the airport noted: “Passenger numbers for the rest of the year are likely to be impacted while there is significant uncertainty in the Middle East.” Heathrow stressed in its


quarterly results statement that progress on a third runway “now depends on regulatory decisions from the CAA and the government’s draft Airports National Policy Statement in July, which are critical to maintaining investor confidence and keeping plans on track for planning permission by 2029”. Yet that investor confidence already appears damaged. A


Heathrow


Chinese sovereign wealth fund is reportedly considering selling its 10% stake in Heathrow, while the Qatar Investment Authority and Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund PIF are counting the cost of the impact to their economies of the Iran war.


travelweekly.co.uk


source saying there was “no way” of meeting Reeves’ deadline for expansion without her at the Treasury. Any delay could push the start of


construction beyond the next general election, due by 2029, when Labour might be in a position to govern only in coalition with the Greens or Liberal Democrats, both of which oppose Heathrow expansion. Heathrow has said a new runway


and terminal buildings would cost £33 billion. However, this figure excludes a £15 billion bill for modernising existing airport facilities and the costs of surface access schemes, including new rail links, which the CAA reported in April “could add significantly to the costs”.


PICTURES: Shutterstock/Colinmthompson, DanceOffBro, Karolis Kavolelis; Booking.com; Christophe Leroux/Air France


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48