BUSINESS NEWS


The aviation sector’s arguments for expansion in terms of economic growth, jobs, tourism and social benefits are contested by public policy think tank the NEF


Report challenges case for UK airport expansion


Think tank the NEF questions arguments in favour of growth. Ian Taylor reports


The economic case for UK airport expansion has been called into question by a report challenging long-accepted forecasts of the impacts on GDP and jobs. The study by the New Economics


Foundation (NEF), ‘Losing Altitude: The Economics of Air Transport in Great Britain’, challenges the analysis by consultancies underpinning the case for travel’s expansion presented by industry bodies, labelling the assumptions behind this “dated”. It counters the case for growth in four key areas – social (‘welfare’),


72 3 AUGUST 2023


employment, tourism and economic growth – while noting: “The sector’s carbon footprint is substantial, its mitigation unresolved and the climate crisis escalating.” The report suggests the argument


that aviation growth brings social benefits “is undermined by the share of new capacity captured by a wealthy minority of frequent flyers”. Lead author Dr Alex Chapman,


senior researcher at NEF, explained: “Half the UK population don’t fly in any given year, but all experience the environmental downsides of air


traffic growth. The benefits flow to a minority of frequent flyers.” On jobs, the report notes: “The


employment created by aviation growth has been diminishing.” Chapman argued: “There are fewer


jobs in air transport today, and there were in 2019, than in 2007, driven by efficiency and automation. Where have the gains in productivity gone? Profit rates increased, but real wages in air transport fell further in 2008-22


Continued on page 70 travelweekly.co.uk


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