INSIGHT
Base Oil Report
Samantha Wright, Senior Editor Manager
Europe
Mid-January saw firmer European domestic Group II and III spot prices, with supply constraints driving upward pressure for January. The domestic Group I market held steady, though limited availability persists. Shortages are likely to continue through the first quarter, especially for heavier grades. European export prices are unchanged in mid-January, with very limited activity due to ongoing shortages in the market.
Baltic Sea export prices were stable-to-firm while Black Sea values remained steady. Tightness continues across all the export markets currently. Some players are hopeful there will be more material in February, while others are expected to be sold out until at least the end of the first quarter.
Demand from several destinations including West Africa, India and the UAE has been very strong in January, with this unlikely to change in the near term.
US
US base oils prices were stable to firm in mid-January. Tight supply, healthy demand and firm feedstock costs supported firm pricing. Rising feedstock vacuum gasoil (VGO) values have put pressure on base oils margin during January. Group II export and Group III prices faced the strongest upward pressure because there was insufficient availability against strong buying interest for each in the global marketplace.
Most US refiners do not expect to have excess supplies for spot sales through the first quarter, particularly of mid-to-heavy grades. Planned maintenance in addition to ongoing reduced refining rates will constrain availability. Finished lubricants demand remains low compared to previous years as recovery continues.
Asia Group I prices were mostly seen at an increase in mid-January, particularly brightstock values. Spot availability of Japanese and southeast Asian material remained limited. Group II values for heavier grades were stable-to-firm, while prices for lighter grades were steady. There is limited availability from South Korea, and at least one Taiwanese refiner is sold out of export material until March. Group III prices were unchanged amid a lack of discussions for South Korean material.
Middle East
In Mid-January Middle East base oil prices were stable due to the absence of any firm discussions, while spot availability from any of the main producers either in the Middle East or Asia continued to face extreme shortages. Tightness is expected to persist during the rest of the first quarter at least.
LINK
www.icis.com
LUBE MAGAZINE NO.161 FEBRUARY 2021
47
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