Capacity
Fit for the future? Tackling the care home capacity challenge as demand rises
Recent research exposed stark regional gaps in England’s care home capacity. Paul Kelly explains how ageing rural and coastal communities are at risk of becoming care deserts without targeted investment.
In an increasingly ageing population, the adult social care sector plays a critical part in supporting individual dignity and wellbeing in later life. In 2024/25, 1.3million people aged 65 or
over made requests for social care from local authorities. Despite mounting demand, the sector has seen the total number of available care home places fall by 8,000 since 2012 – with provision dropping from 6.1 residential home places and 5.2 nursing home places for every 100 people aged 75 or over, to 4.4 and 4.2 respectively by 2024. The current social care model is now
facing a period of significant scrutiny. Under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the Casey Commission – an independent review of the sector led by Baroness Casey – will deliver its findings by summer 2027, twelve months ahead of its original deadline. Expected
to provide long-term directives, and help shape the government’s ambition towards a National Care Service, the report will be an important step towards meaningful reform. Meanwhile, operators continue to
navigate a series of sector challenges as they work to meet the immediate and future needs of the population. Care homes must provide high-quality services to residents, while also fostering a sense of community, aligning with sustainability objectives, and nurturing their workforce. These aims are set against the stark
reality of local authority funding restraints, increased labour costs, tax reforms, and tightening budgets – significant pressures that directly affect the accessibility and affordability of care provision across the UK. Against this backdrop, research from Unity Trust Bank highlights another
challenge facing the sector: a substantial geographic mismatch between care home capacity and the communities where demand is greatest. This analysis identifies emerging ‘care deserts’ in parts of rural and coastal England, alongside the longer-term risk that some could develop into ‘care traps’ as populations continue to age.
Sector in focus According to Knight Frank, the UK has around 481,000 elderly care home beds, with total bed supply increasing by just 2.4 per cent over the past decade. This is despite the over-65 population increasing by approximately 16.2 per cent over the same period. The Unity Trust Bank care homes report
reviewed care home provision in all 543 Westminster Parliamentary constituencies
November 2026
www.thecarehomeenvironment.com 19
Francesco Scatena -
stock.adobe.com
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