Market insight
adult social care system needs a long- term funding settlement; one that is simpler, fairer and helps tackle the fundamental inequalities which exist in society,” the report states.
So, what are my thoughts on what will happen post-Covid, whenever that is as far as safe access to care homes is concerned? Care home closures will increase drastically, the level of increase dependent on whether a further tranche of extra financial support is provided through local authorities. In addition, many owners may well say enough is enough.
New care homes will stay low until an acceptable social care reform plan is delivered, although new care developments will continue on the basis that investment in other industries such as hospitality and retail is even more risky.
Investment in existing care homes that are fit for purpose in the mid to long term, will increase as investors see bargains ahead. That will either be from existing providers to add to their portfolios, or external investors who will want locations with a track records and an existing occupancy, however low, which will increase the market for the companies who manage for investors.
Table 1. The effect on Covid-19 occupancy levels, credit: CSI Market Intelligence. Mike Short
Founder and director of CSI Market Intelligence, Mike Short entered the care sector in 2009 with an interim management role and decided to stay. CSI provides market intelligence to care providers, associations, investors, and other channels within the industry, identifying and measuring viability of care homes throughout England. Mike has published many reports and insights into the care home sector, as well as writing numerous editorials for the specialist press, and markets a
TCHE
range of regional handbooks showing supply, demand, population, and demographic data for all 150 local authorities. Mike lives in Worthing, West Sussex with his wife of over 40 years, Sue who is a qualified care trainer.
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November 2020 •
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