News


Excess death toll in care homes from Covid-19 ‘up to 10,000 more than thought’


An early draft of a study by University of Manchester health economists and data scientists calculates that up to 10,000 more people may have died in care homes from Covid-19 than previously realised. The study is the first independent analysis


of daily death notification data sent to the Care Quality Commission (CQC) by 13,630 care homes in the first wave of the pandemic. In March 2020, there were 15,524 care


homes operating in England, offering around 455,600 beds. The team also reveal that the excess


deaths were mainly concentrated among large care homes providing services to older people and people with dementia, affiliated to a branded chain of providers - where staff may be more likely to work in more than one place. However, there were no significant


differences between profit and not-for-profit care homes. The study used sophisticated statistical


analysis to compare data between January 2017 to August 2020 with data from April to August 2020 to calculate excess deaths in care homes during the pandemic. They linked death notification data at care


home-level with CQC registers of active care homes in England, providing the data on care home characteristics used for the analysis. “Thousands of people have died from Covid-19, but because many weren’t tested,


Beard signs Signature contract for two care homes


worth £25m Construction outfit Beard has been awarded contracts worth a combined £25m by Signature Senior Lifestyle to build two developments in south-east England. The sites in Caversham in Berkshire and


Farnham Common in Buckinghamshire, both expected to be completed in 2022, will feature luxury care homes and assisted living communities for seniors in need of nursing, respite or dementia care. Caversham will comprise 86 apartments,


including a number of deluxe units, built over four floors, split across a sloping site with views across to the Caversham lakes. Communal facilities will include a café,


restaurant, cinema, lounge areas, activity room, a pub, spa bathrooms,


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some death certificates failed to attribute cause of death to the virus either directly or indirectly, especially at the beginning of the pandemic” said Dr. Marcello Morciano, a senior lecturer in health policy and economics at the University of Manchester. “This study shows that in care homes,


mortality figures attributable in some way to Covid-19 have been hugely underestimated: the figure could be as high as 10,000 people,” he added. “But it also tells us where many of the people


who died in excess to what expected based on historical trends were living in care homes that experienced Covid-related fatalities and that has important policy implications in terms of prioritising resources in the future.” The team estimated that 29,400 more care


home residents, directly and indirectly attributable to Covid-19, died during the first 23 weeks of the pandemic than expected from historical trends; an equivalent to 6.5 per cent of all care home beds available in England. Their analysis also showed that almost all


the excess deaths were recorded in the quarter of care homes that reported Covid-19 fatalities, mainly care homes that provide nursing services. Only 65 per cent of the excess deaths were


officially reported to be directly attributable to Covid-19, meaning the remaining 35 per cent - or a figure of 10,000 people - have died in those


care homes and flagged as non-Covid deaths. Official estimates from England and Wales


have reported aggregated excess deaths by place of occurrence. The aggregates, however, do not account


for care home residents dying in other settings such as hospital. They also fail to provide sufficient information to reflect on the impacts of policies over the period, or to inform new policies for the future. Professor Evan Kontopantelis from the


University of Manchester said: “In care homes across Europe, at the beginning of the pandemic staff were left without PPE, testing regimes were poor, and care home residents who needed hospital treatment didn’t get it. “And in mid-March, Hospital Trusts


discharged medically fit patients to care homes to free capacity. Mandatory testing prior to discharge was only brought into effect a month later. These factors have all played their part in the higher figure of deaths we have described. “We also believe that knowing the care


home characteristics associated with Covid-19 outbreaks and excess deaths may help in designing rapid responses.” Dr. Jonathan Stokes from the University of


Manchester added: “The large excess of deaths in care homes shows England, and other countries, didn’t adequately protect this vulnerable group in the first wave of Covid.”


hair salon and therapy room. Farnham Common will also offer luxury


assisted living and nursing in 74 studio-style bedrooms with private wet rooms, with the same range of facilities on hand to residents. “It’s a real privilege to be able to work with Signature Care Homes on these two


developments, and to be able to deliver on their vision for the highest quality living spaces for their residents. The excellence in design of the buildings and their positioning in their surroundings at both sites makes these homes particularly attractive,” said Beard director Pat Hughes.


www.thecarehomeenvironment.com• December 2020


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