STRATEGY ▶▶▶
EU poultry production set to rise further
Poultry production in the European Union will rise by a further 2.5% this year thanks to good demand and high prices. And price levels will also favour import growth for the second half of the year by around 5%, according to the European Commission’s “Short-Term Outlook for EU Agricultural Markets in 2019 and 2020”.
T BY TONY MCDOUGAL
he latest Commission figures show production still rising but at a lower level than last year when there was a surge of nearly 5% growth. EU poultry meat production grew by 2% year-on-year in the first
quarter of 2019 and, for the full year, the Commission expects this to rise to 2.5%. This will be supported by high prices, with the strongest growth once again in eastern EU nations. Broil- er prices started this year with levels below the 5 year aver- age, but from April they have been substantially higher. Con- sumer consumption is expected to continue on its rising
trend – up by around 0.6kg/capita to 25.4kg. And if the high producer prices of pigmeat are transferred to retail prices, this will likely shift additional consumption to poultry, the Com- mission argues.
Exports and imports on the rise Commenting on the first half of the year, the Commission said there had been a strong export performance in the first 4 months, which had seen a 13% rise year-on-year. Around 40% of the growth had been due to increasing shipments to South Africa, despite the safeguard measure in place in the form of a $ 35 duty on bone-in cuts. However, these ship- ments are still well down on the record 2016 exports. Exports to the two main destinations of EU poultry also grew significantly – Ghana saw a 12% rise and now takes an 11% share of the EU export market, while there was a 16% rise in exports to the Philippines (10% share). Vietnam saw exports double.
EU poultry meat production grew by 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019 and, for the full year, the Commission expects this to rise to 2.5%.
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ASF effect Given the ASF situation in China, exports have also risen there by 2% but so far Poland is the only EU country to benefit hav- ing regained market access in November 2018. For the full year, EU poultry exports are anticipated to grow by 3%. Im- ports also grew strongly in the first four months (+14%), driv- en by rising shipments from the two main EU partners – Thai- land (+11%) and Brazil (+23%). Imports from Brazil are still well below 2017 levels due to the ongoing sanitary restric- tions in place. However, its exports of frozen poultry are ris- ing, sometimes out of existing quotas, thanks to high EU breast prices. In April, Ukraine reached a record levels in its exports to the EU under the liberalised tariff line for “other cuts”. However, a provisional agreement has been reached with Ukraine on a ceiling of 50,000 tonnes on imports under this tariff line. By the end of the year, EU imports are expected to grow by more than 5%, driven by high EU prices.
PHOTO: HANS PRINSEN
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