CASE STUDY ▶▶▶
Philippines: Covid-19 and ASF constrain livestock feed demand
There has been a strong production of maize in the Philippines, which is set to achieve record high output. Meanwhile, however, Covid-19 and African Swine Fever (ASF) continue to constrain livestock feed demand.
BY NATALIE BERKHOUT
Maximum yield potential of maize According to the latest Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) report, maize production increased 6.5% during the third quarter of MY2020/2021 compared to the previous year. The Philippine government forecasts that calendar year 2021 maize production will reach 8.85 million metric tonnnes (mmt), which assumes maximum yield potential and mini- mal damage from climate events. This forecast is composed of 6.37 mmt (72%) of yellow maize (primarily for feed) and 2.47 mmt (28%) of white maize (primarily for food). The pace of maize and wheat trade has slowed in the second half of MY 2020/2021, the main factor being reduced feed
consumption. Logistic costs are also increasing. It is expect- ed that the MY2021/2022 import forecast of maize will be 500,000 mmt, based on updated trade during the latter half of MY2020/2021.
Feed demand under pressure Maize feed demand will remain under pressure due to lower poultry production, in particular, as well as decreased pig production, notes a USDA GAINS report. Pig feed demand is expected to remain dampened through 2022 due to the damaging effects of African Swine Fever on local herds. Meanwhile, broiler production dropped 10% in 2020 due to extended quarantines to contain the spread of Covid-19.
Poultry meat and egg production Total chicken production from January to March 2021 was 402,770 mmt live weight, 11.2% lower than the previous year’s quarterly output of 453,720 mmt live weight, according to the PSA. Total chicken egg production from January to March was 152,550 mmt, 3% higher than the 148,000 mmt in the same quarter of 2020. As of 1 April 2021, the total chicken inventory in the country was estimated at 179 million birds, which is 0.6% higher than the previous year’s same period count of 178 million birds. Broiler and layer inventory increased by 1.1% and 5.6%, respectively. It is expected that broiler production will grow by 2% in 2021 and accelerate further in 2022 as economic restrictions are loosened.
The Philippine government forecasts that calendar year 2021 maize production will reach 8.85 mmt, which assumes maximum yield potential and minimal damage from climate events.
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Feed wheat affected by ASF MY2021/2022 wheat imports are expected to be 6.4 mmt, partially based on weaker demand for feed wheat. Wheat im- ports for MY2020/2021 through April 2021 reached 5 mmt, down 16% compared to the 5.9 mmt from the previous year. MY2020/2021 imports are forecast at 6.2 mmt. Feed wheat demand in MY2021/2022 and 2020/2021 has been adjusted down by 50,000 mmt and 200,000 mmt, respectively. African Swine Fever, which continues to be a major challenge for the Philippine pig sector, has spread to locations previously free of the disease. PSA reports that total pork production was down 25.8% from January to March 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. The pig sector’s decline, as a major con- sumer of feed wheat, has dampened feed wheat demand through MY2021/2022. With the country’s herd repopulation and biosecurity programmes underway, it is anticipated that pork production will grow by 1-2% in MY 2021/2022.
PHOTO: RUDY AND PETER SKITTERIANS
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