NEWS


Oceans apart T


he recent spate of devastating hurricanes that hit the Caribbean and the US, making the 2017 season one of the worst for many years, has refocused attention on the


potential economic impact of global warming. As hurricane Harvey hit the US Gulf Coast, in line with forward planning, refineries and chemical plants along with ports were shut down (C&I, 2017, 7, 7). The latest report from consultancy IHS Markit


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noted that as of 19 September, 15 of the 20 affected refineries were back at or near normal operating rates, while four of the remainder were actively in the process of restarting and ramping up. As the report noted, however, although oil and gas prices were essentially back to the pre- Harvey level, ‘this price recovery was far slower than for any previous hurricane, underscoring the fact that Harvey was the single greatest disruptive event to ever afflict the US refining industry’. As regards chemicals, around 10% of total US


ethylene production remains offline, while new ethylene units slated to come online over the next six months are expected to be delayed. According to the American Chemistry Council


(ACC), its US chemical production regional index was flat during August with gains elsewhere in the US offset by declines in the results for the Gulf Coast and the Ohio valley. ‘Disruptions from hurricane Harvey were most pronounced in the Gulf Coast region, which saw a steep decline, following three months of solid gains,’ said the ACC. Following Harvey, the combined effects of hurricanes Irma and Jose created havoc in the Caribbean and Florida as well as impacting vast swathes of the south east states of the US. As C&I goes to press, the whole island of Puerto Rico is still without electric power, and airports and ports are struggling to resume operations. Puerto Rico is a major centre ofr pharmaceutical production, and as such, apart from lost production has been added the problem of exporting finished products. Conventional theories say human activity has


produced the conditions for a warming effect that is changing our planet’s environment. The argument goes that the industrial


revolution in the 19th century dramatically increased our use of fossil fuels, generating increasing volumes of carbon dioxide resulting in the greenhouse effect. Scientists have identified a number of miti-


gating effects, including the greater uptake of carbon dioxide by plants and also absorption of the gas by the oceans resulting in warming.


Neil Eisberg | Editor And warmer oceans are also believed to


have a major impact on the world’s weather, particularly regarding the formation and longevity of hurricanes. As meteorologists point out, hurricanes rely on warm water in the seas and oceans to maintain their strength and here there may be some other connections to theories regarding climate change. A new report from the Global Warming


Policy Foundation (GWPF), based in London, UK, suggests that rather than possibly being Earth’s saviour by acting as a carbon sink, the oceans themselves may be responsible for climate change. The report’s author, Anastasios Tsonis, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, US, describes how interactions between natural ocean cycles like the so-called Little boy, El Niño, off the coast of South America in the Pacific Ocean, and the North Atlantic Oscillation drive changes in the global climate.


The El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO)


was discovered in the 1970s when satellite images of the Earth were first routinely collected. Since that time it has been recognised as a major driver of the Earth’s climate system, according to Christopher Essex, chairman of the academic advisory council of the GWPF, in the report. Tsonis, who is also an adjunct research scientist with the Hydrologic Research Center in San Diego, US, says: ‘We can show that at the start of the 20th century, the North Atlantic Oscillation pushed the global climate into a warming phase, and in 1940 pushed it back into cooling mode. The famous pause at the start of the 21st century seems to have been instigated by the North Atlantic Oscillation too.’ Tsonis believes most of the changes in the


global climate over the period of what he calls instrumental record have their origins in the North Atlantic. He believes another shift in the North Atlantic could bring about another phase shift in the global climate, leading to renewed cooling or warming for several decades to come. Tsonis says out that these cycles are entirely


natural, and tell us nothing about the effect of carbon dioxide emissions. He believes, however, they should inspire caution over the slowing trajectory of global warming we have seen in recent decades. ‘While humans may play a role in climate


change, other natural forces may play important roles too,’ he adds.


© Society of Chemical Industry 2016 ISSN [print] 0009-3068. ISSN [online] 2047-6329 Views expressed in this issue do not necessarily reflect those of SCI or C&I


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