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WHAT THE LATEST TARIFF RULING MEANS FOR AIRFREIGHT


BY Oscar SARDINAS


THE US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the IEEPA tarif fs has made headlines around the world. For air freight in the Americas, the reality is a bit more complicated and the uncertainty is far from being resolved. When the US Supreme Court handed down its ruling on 20th


February 2026, the response from business and trade circles was quick and even relieved in some cases. The court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the president to impose tarif fs, a power that under the Constitution belongs exclusively to Congress. As Chief Justice John Roberts wrote, IEEPA “contains no reference to tarif fs or duties” and until this administration, no president had ever interpreted the law to bestow such power. For freight operators and importers across the Americas who


had spent the better part of a year working their way through an unpredictable tarif f environment, it felt like the storm may have finally broken. Not so fast.


New tariffs, same as the old ones. Within hours of the ruling, President Trump issued a new proclamation under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a ten percent global


rate replaces a patchwork of country-specific IEEPA levies. Brazil, for example, had been subject to a 40 percent surcharge under


IEEPA, now replaced by the 15 percent baseline with


exemptions covering beef, agricultural goods, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals and aerospace products. USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico remain exempt, which means a lot for trans-border air freight lanes driven by nearshoring.


What the ruling really means IEEPA’s defining characteristic was speed, the ability to impose tarif fs overnight on any country, without a formal investigation. That unpredictability had been one of the most disruptive forces on freight markets in recent memory, triggering cargo surges as importers front-loaded shipments ahead of rate changes. With IEEPA off the table, future tarif f actions will require investigations and procedural steps, a slower and more telegraphed process that could mean fewer sudden booking surges for air freight operators. The broader economic toll has been significant. According


to the Brookings Institution, the US average ef fective tarif f rate climbed to nearly 17 percent, the highest since the early 1930s, with nearly 90 percent of


import surcharge ef fective


24th February, which he raised to 15 percent, the statutory maximum, the very next day. The tariff landscape did not collapse so much as rearrange itself. In the Americas, the situation varies. According to Americas


Quarterly, Latin American economies are relatively well- positioned under the new framework. The uniform 15 percent


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American firms and consumers. For cargo-dependent industries across the Americas, from


Colombian flower growers to Peruvian agricultural exporters, that burden compressed margins and in some cases prompted modal shif ts away from air entirely.


those costs absorbed by


The big refund question One of the most consequential unresolved issues is what happens to the tariffs already collected. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates cumulative IEEPA collections reached roughly US$165 billion through January 2026, with refund exposure of up to US$175 billion. The Supreme Court however said nothing about how refunds would work, leaving that task up to the US Court of International Trade. Nearly 2,000 importers had already filed protective claims,


according to CNBC, but that’s just a fraction of the more than 300,000 who paid IEEPA duties. Put plainly, patience is a must for airfreight importers awaiting relief.


150-day clock The Section 122 tariffs expire on 24th July 2026 unless Congress votes to extend them, an outcome that, as the Peterson Institute for International Economics notes, is politically fraught with midterm elections approaching. If they lapse, the freight market could potentially face another reset. If extended, the industry locks in at 15 percent for another cycle. What this ruling does not do is end trade policy uncertainty. The


current administration’s pivot to Section 122 within hours of the decision signals that tariffs are here to stay, just with more strings attached and a deadline. For airfreight operators in the Americas, last year’s lessons still hold: policies can shift faster than a supply chain can adapt. With the 24th July deadline approaching and Congress under


pressure to act, the next few months could prove just as consequential for the industry as the past year


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