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largest trading partners, further compounding the economic devastation wrought by COVID-19. And while Boris Johnson is sanguine about
Britain’s prospects should the country crash out of the EU with a deal, it is clear his counterparts in business are not and would prefer some kind of agreement with Europe, if not the US. The slow progress is yet more proof the British
Oven-ready trade deals looking unlikely
The UK is looking increasingly likely to leave the EU at the end of December without a trade deal with either of its major trading partners
What happened? Following a visit by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Conservative government announced it did not anticipate concluding a free-trade deal with the US despite promises to have a deal in place by the New Year. The downgrading of expectations on US-UK trade came as UK negotiators failed to unlock their parallel negotiations with the European Union following another round of talks. UK Trade Secretary Liz Truss re-affirmed that Britain would not be putting any part of the NHS
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up for sale as a condition of free trade with the Americans, an accusation levelled by the opposition Labour Party during last year’s general election. For his part, lead EU negotiator David Frost said he was still optimistic a deal could be agreed by September should the two sides be willing to move.
What does it mean? The lack of progress in both series of trade talks means the UK is on track to leave the European Union without a free trade deal with its two
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people were sold a false bill of goods during the December 2019 general election when ministers and MPs travelled the country touting their ‘oven-ready’ Brexit deal. The sight of lorry parks emerging across the Kent countryside will add further discomfort to those who thought leaving the EU would be a snap. As perverse as it might sound, the massive
economic shock of the coronavirus pandemic is likely to help the Johnson government downplay a hard Brexit. After all, what is a further 5% hit to GDP when the virus has already taken many multiples of that away already? Alas, British goods will need new markets if the
economy is going to recover. The idea that Britain could magically conjure up a trade negotiation capability after years of outsourcing it to the EU and then use it to negotiate agreements with the EU, US, Japan, Australia and others at the same time was always a stretch. The one benefit of downgrading the US talks is the UK can now focus more of its efforts on the EU, which should have always remained the sole priority for this calendar year. Despite the bluster and bravado, Boris Johnson knows he needs a deal with the EU to start the great British comeback.
This article first appeared in Under the Radar – A dive into the news you might have missed, published by Trafalgar Strategy, 24 July 2020. It is reproduced here with its kind permission.
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September 2020
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