42 THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE
The housing market, labour & migration
While it is impossible to say for certain, unskilled migration, made more prevalent by climate change, may have a negative impact on the housing market – by putting more pressure on housing avail- ability, for example. Controversial remarks from Conservative MP and unsuccessful leadership candidate Dominic Raab purported in April last year that “based on the ONS data, advice from the Department [DHCLG)] is that in the last 25 years [1991-2016] we have seen immigration put house prices up by something like 20 per cent.”
environment’s performance gap. He splits the main issues into three
areas. These are ‘known knowns’ – assumptions and estimations we under- stand and acknowledge; ‘known unknowns’ – the difference between what is designed and the reality of it being used by real people; and what Dr Dunn deems “the most significant” area of concern, ‘unknown unknowns’ – the gap still present even when the other two categories are accounted for. “This excess energy use can only be as a result of product substitution on site, poor detail- ing, and build quality,” he wrote. On the performance gap, the CCC’s ‘Fit
for the Future’ report says that the compliance and enforcement framework must be overhauled to focus on the performance of homes once built, with accurate performance testing and report- ing made widespread. It also recommends a nationwide training programme to upskill the existing workforce in order to increase high ‘as- built’ performance, and that the industry undertake a large-scale study to provide “robust quantification and benchmarking of the performance gap for energy, water and ventilation.” If the industry is struggling to address these efficiency measures already, and designing a home as efficient currently does not ensure its efficiency once built, what hope do housebuilders and develop- ers have of curbing their damage? Perhaps CAD software and factory built homes could bring higher standards that construction workers alone can’t?
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Being based on originally unpublished data however, this statement was widely questioned and criticised. The complexity of the housing market, for example, placed doubt on the veracity of Raab’s analysis, with even the Department admit- ting its research “was not intended to be exhaustive in its explanatory power and throughout this release references are made to limitations.”
Whether any price growth at all can be attributed to migration however [though of course this is no bad thing for house- builders and developers], the housing crisis is set to worsen. We are struggling to build homes enough for our current population, and when the industry is struggling, quality falls. Will the rising technologies of modular housing be enough to maintain quality standards at the pace necessary? And even if so, will the available sites be enough to home new populations – how will we free up the green belt if not? Perhaps – as Brian Berry of the
Federation of Master Builders has often argued in his monthly column for Housebuilder & Developer – we should put our energies into helping SMEs, on environmental grounds. For example, procuring more environmentally friendly small sites across the country or thinking outside the box with schemes such as town centre roof-space developments. A key benefit of SME building is firms’ tendency to develop smaller sites that respond to key local demand. Housebuilders and Government know well the challenge ahead of them to build the homes the country needs, and whatever climate change brings, the issue is becoming acute. It is near-impossible to
accurately predict what the future housing market will look like, but it is clear that builders are going to have to face up to predictable realities. Shutting our eyes and ears to the troubles of others (as well as borders) would be a particularly depressing outcome in light of the difficult changes to come.
Construction labour is another factor hit
by climate change – an issue that will further exacerbate the sector’s rising skills crisis. While the increase in unskilled migration that may be caused may mop up some of the shortfall in staff caused by Brexit (according to CITB in a 2018 report, most roles in construction taken up by migrants were “unskilled or semi- skilled”), there are other impacts on existing labour forces that could prove problematic. Hotter weather will likely make work days onsite shorter as workers won’t be able to stay in the open weather for as long – and likely won’t work as efficiently even when onsite – and unpredictable weather, flooding and heavy rainfall can put projects back significantly. Advances in workwear could be a viable solution for some firms however, using modern materials that can retain or cope with heat far more efficiently.
Modular housing could again provide another solution here. With most of the work done offsite in factories, the working climate can be managed, and freak weather events won’t hold projects back to anywhere near the same degree. Modular also has the potential to greatly increase our housing output – with units installed in a matter of days rather than months. Still, however, we are still struggling to build enough homes for our current population, and climate change could add a further dimension to our existing demographic challenge.
MIGRATION
The UK population is growing at around 0.6 per cent per annum – not as fast as it has in some recent decades – but climate change could also bring with it vast increases in migration, while the UK looks to tighten its borders post-Brexit. The IPCC reported that climate-related
risks to health, livelihoods, food security, human security, and economic growth are projected to increase dramatically if the world warms by 1.5 degrees, and becomes more acute at 2 degrees. One symptom is migration caused by adverse weather such as droughts leaving land untenable, resulting in ‘climate refugees’. The results are set to be more severe in countries outside of Europe. In Somalia, increasingly severe and frequent droughts are threatening the lives of millions of inhabitants. Even one of the richest places
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