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The world’s first container, left. Background image: The largest container port in the world today – Shanghai


ship on pallets, in crates, in bags, in slings or nets. This was a time-consuming, cumbersome, insecure and dangerous business. However, by packing cargo into containers, significant volume and mass of goods may be transported and handled from ‘door to door’ in a single unit, with the minimum of disruption, providing greater protection to the contents and personnel involved. Inevitably, containerisation has lowered shipping costs and


facilitated a reduction in supply chain timescales. Embracing economies of scale, containership operators have sought to deploy ships of a size that push the boundaries of types and volumes of trade, navigation channels, technical design, construction and propulsion, and the port facilities required to load and unload the cargo. There is little argument that the unit load has underpinned the


rapid growth of the Chinese and other Asian economies over the last five decades. However, the container’s chief asset remains adaptability throughout all global supply chains; the frontiers yet to be unitised include parts of the world where infrastructure is less developed and the economics for cargo volumes currently continue to be weighted against the use of this standard containment system.


Brave new world? Container transport in 2043 In this context, TT Club and McKinsey & Company have carried out qualitative research to consider possible futures for the containerised industry over a 25-year horizon. Being involved with the entire freight supply chain on land, at sea and in the air, the research project sought to identify the opinions of a broad spectrum of senior leaders across the entire industry, interviewing the club’s board of directors, as well as a number of ‘disruptors’ and other stakeholders. In formulating the four ‘bookend’ possible futures, the research


revealed an almost-religious debate among the participants about the real fulcrum on which the industry’s long-term future rests. On one hand, many focused on trade growth and whether it is possible that the industry will enjoy another boom similar to that of the two decades leading to 2008, or, at the other end of the spectrum, whether robotics, 3D printing, near-shoring and geopolitical pressures could cause a structural slowdown in trade growth. On the other hand, with equal passion, were those who argued that digital, data and analytics are the key game-changers, from which new ways to satisfy customer needs will deliver value. It is impossible to know how different trends, uncertainties and


discontinuities will combine together over the next 25 years. You can download the publication as a PDF from the TT Club website.


BIFA is grateful to the TT Club for its permission to reproduce this item.


August 2018


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