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Ambitious export plans face headwinds BC net farm incomes reflect weaker national outlook


by PETER MITHAM


OTTAWA – BC’s ambitions to boost agri-food revenues to $15 billion by 2020, in part through greater exports, face significant headwinds from softer international demand and higher input costs. While growth in exports of BC farm products has outpaced that of other sectors over the past year, the latest national farm income forecast from Agriculture and Agri-food Canada points to slower growth in 2017. Analysts with Agriculture


Canada’s farm economic analysis division expect 2016 will bring “the first year-over- year decline since 2009, following six consecutive years of steady increases.” While net cash income for farmers will be above the five- year average in 2016 and 2017, it won’t match the peaks hit in recent years. Nationally, farm net cash income is projected to drop 2% to $14.8 billion. That’s better than analysts predicted a year ago, but part of a cooling trend set to continue in 2017.


AAFC expects net cash incomes will slip to $13.8


billion in 2017, 6.8% less than in 2016. “While both


crop and livestock production have been relatively strong, weakness in global commodity markets is expected to put downward pressure on Canadian prices,” Rodney Meyer, director of the farm economic analysis division told media in a conference call in mid- February.


The main drag on net cash income are livestock prices, with prices for grain being a secondary influence. Rising stocks globally have pushed down crop prices generally as consumption has slowed. Shifting exchange rates are


also having an impact, Agriculture Canada says. Canada’s dollar has


weakened and federal analysts expect it to eventually settle into a range of about 82 US cents. This will not offset declines in exports, and will also ensure that input costs – especially of fuel and


fertilizer – remain more expensive than just a few years ago.


The national outlook is consistent with estimates released last year for BC, which predict lower farmgate sales in 2016 and a 25% drop in net farm income. Overall net income, after depreciation, is expected to return to the red in 2016, after a strong showing in 2015 that put it in the black for the first time in a decade. The latest federal forecast indicates that 2017 will bring more of the same.


Good news


But there’s good news amid the cloudy forecast.


Grains and livestock account for just a quarter of BC farm cash receipts, so the impact of tougher times in these sectors will likely be felt less here. Moreover, the strength of BC exports promises to be a long-term boon for the province, as well as the rest of Canada. “A growing world population and rising incomes in developing economies are expected to continue to create demand for agricultural products,” Meyer told media. “Growth in trade should continue as Canada’s agricultural resources place it in a good position to take advantage of emerging opportunities.” While the short-term offers


a mixed outlook, Agriculture Canada expects a more positive outlook for the medium and long term. The impact of revisions to international trading agreements hasn’t been factored into the projections, however. “The decisions by the US administration in 2017 are hypothetical at this point, so we’re not considering them in the outlook,” Meyer told media.


COUNTRY LIFE IN BC • MARCH 2017


New app helps stop spread of apple pest


by TERRY FRIES


KELOWNA – A masters student at the UBC’s Okanagan campus in Kelowna has developed a website designed to slow the spread of a costly apple parasite.


Brian Muselle launched the


website to combat the apple maggot, a tephritid fruit fly. The website, known as


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APPLE, an approximate acronym for the Apple maggot Prevention Project using Landscape Ecology, has two main purposes: • to provide a portal for Okanagan residents to help locate common host plants, especially apple and hawthorn; • to serve as an informational site to raise public awareness. Muselle’s research models simulate the apple maggot’s potential spread through the Okanagan Valley, which should assist researchers and growers with control efforts and survey methods. To improve the models, Muselle is asking Okanagan residents to supply information about where they’ve seen apple maggot host plants and submit the data on the APPLE site at [http://applemaggotproject.w eebly.com/]. In addition to hawthorn and apples, apple maggots also infect, but are not limited to, sweet cherry, sour cherry, crabapple, Asian and common pear, European plum, bitter cherry and cotoneaster plants. The apple maggot has


spread from eastern North American into six American states. BC’s Okanagan, Similkameen, Shuswap and Thompson regions are the only commercial apple- growing areas in North America where the pest is not established, although some have been found in those areas.


The maggot, which


burrows into fruit leaving brownish channels, is established in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island.


The BC government has


asked residents to not transport fruit from these regions to other parts of the province.


Muselle can be reached at brian.muselle@ubc.ca or at 250-550-4588.


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