AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
done with pricing, or managed lanes, or out- right area-based restrictions. One of the unknowns facing regions as
they consider integration of automated small vehicle systems with existing fixed trunk lines is the degree to which passengers are willing to switch conveyances at least once for each such journey. One of the fears is that for shorter trunk-line distances, passengers might find continuing on in a vehicle that collects them at their doorstep to be more convenient than transferring to transit. This might be an area of optimization conflict for any operator that can gather multiple people into small vehicles, take those passengers to their destinations without connection to trunk lines then to collect other pas- sengers without dead- heading so as to maximize PKT:VKT. Modeling needs to begin now.
SHARING: NEITHER THE DEFAULT START-STATE NOR THE SOLE END-STATE For this discussion, we simplify ownership models into two critical catego- ries: private and shared. Combining the two non- owned scenarios des- cribed in the UCL and UITP reports (laissez-faire and integrated), SAVs may be operated in an on- demand fashion such as one imagines for robo-taxis or in a transit-like fashion such as regularly scheduled buses and shuttles of various sizes on fixed routes or in jitney-like fashion within delineated neighborhoods, or as first/last mile systems connecting to trunk lines. We make this simplification because
we believe that with the right incentive structure each of these styles of opera- tion would find their own appropriate deployments in neighborhoods, between residential and working zones and among centers of commerce in a self-leveling regional balance. This can evolve from incentive-based governance rather than
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with rigid and scheduled planning using constrained service classifications or per- vehicle medallion approaches. We assume that all publicly available SAVs
will be regulated in some way and that it is desirable to optimize a regional shared fleet in order to maximize the four desired impacts, described above, while readily pro- viding all the PKT demanded in that region. We assert that travelers will always seek
ways to satisfy their trip desires and will pre- fer not to make compromises within their personal tolerances for time, cost and com- fort. When these are not satisfied by SAV
ible enough to permit varying likelihoods of ownership even if/as we move toward more SAVs and fewer PAVs. We assume that there will never be a world of only SAVs and that the shared:private PKT ratio would not likely exceed three, i.e., 75 per cent shared. We claim this from considering the realistic requirements for carrying special personal appliances, work tools and loads, or demands for specific comfort or privacy.
“One of the unknowns facing regions as they consider integration of automated small vehicle systems with existing fixed trunk lines is the degree to which passengers are willing to switch conveyances at least once for each such journey”
ANTICIPATING 2030-2040 We begin by assuming cities in the very near future will be little changed in densities, distribution of residen- tial and employment zones and commuting distances. There might be a reduction in street parking and an increase in sprawl, but cities – and people – change slower than does the pace of technological innova- tion. We expect that SAV
fleets would comprise vehicles of the sizes and speeds as we have now, suitable to existing roads and mixable with pedestrians and bicycles. There might be a reduc- tion the average vehicle size; there would be new designs and most will be electric. In spite of the begin-
services, all travelers that can afford to do so would elect to own a PAV — i.e., basic per- sonal travel expectations habituated over a century of expanding vehicle ownership will continue to be satisfied in whatever way each individual finds preferable and possible. It is not reasonable to project the mix of
vehicles or vehicle ownership for 2050 or 2070. However, we assume that there will always be some portion of vehicles that are privately owned, some will be government operated such as rail or heavy trunk lines and many will be operated within com- mercially managed robofleets. The desired goal is a governance system that is flex-
ning of a downturn in personal car owner- ship, trip-takers in aggregate will continue to use motorized conveyances at least as much as now and for much the same spectrum of purposes. Many urban popu- lations will continue to grow. Travel per- capita might occur slightly more or less often and for somewhat shorter or greater distances, though always influenced by the reality that humans tend to consume more of whatever becomes more eco- nomically available. Entrepreneurs con- tinue to create place-based experiences that masses of people want to see, hear and taste in person.
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