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No hockey-stick chart for silicon photonics, says LightCounting


Revenues from silicon photonics-based optical


transceivers doubled in 2016 compared to the previous year, to exceed $600 million. This doesn’t indicate a sudden market disruption; on the contrary, silicon photonics market share is expected to ramp gradually with sales reaching $2 billion by 2022. That’s the conclusion from analyst


firm LightCounting, whose report ‘Integrated Optical Devices: Is Silicon Photonics a Disruptive Technology?’ examines the prospects for silicon photonics and forecasts growth.


silicon photonics is integration, this technology is most suitable for complex high-end devices that require a lot of integration.’ In LightCounting’s view, most


integrated products that combine one, two or four optical functions will continue to rely on indium phosphide (InP) and gallium arsenide (GaAs) technologies for the next decade. There is currently not a single silicon


photonics-based product that does not have an alternative made using InP and GaAs materials, the analyst firm observes. Although many have predicted silicon photonics will enable


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successes were in the 40 and 100 Gigabit Ethernet and 100G DWDM transceiver markets, as optical module makers Acacia and Luxtera increased production volumes and Intel entered the market. Silicon photonics will account for


more than 20 per cent of the global optical transceiver market by 2022. But with the market being mainly for high-end devices, the contribution of silicon photonics to the optical transceiver market will remain below 2.5 per cent of the total. ‘The majority of these products will


THE RELIABLE EXPERT


be high-end devices, operating at 100G or above and priced accordingly,’ said Vladimir Kozlov, founder and CEO of LightCounting. ‘This seems to contradict the expectations of many industry experts that silicon photonics will enable inexpensive, massively produced optical connectivity. However, if the main advantage of


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inexpensive, mass-produced optical components, LightCounting’s analysis suggests this will not happen in the next three to five years. Only if silicon photonics can offer


new functionality that cannot be achieved with existing materials, could it prove to be truly disruptive, the analyst firm says. Integrating optical connectivity with electronic chips may enable such new functionality. Adding silicon photonics-based optical switching or quantum computing could open a wide new frontier for innovation, but market shifts are hard to predict. Nevertheless, all established


component and module suppliers have silicon photonics technology on their roadmap. ‘The chances for success of these


efforts are real and no vendor can afford to ignore the possibility of a disruption,’ Kozlov said. ‘Being prepared seems to be the only practical solution.’


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