from renewables. The RED also has a sub- target for all Member States to achieve a 10% renewable energy contribution in the transport sector. We have therefore chosen to draw on official government sources for the graphs in each technology section. The one exception to this is where the average annual capacity growth rate achieved since 20091
has been
used to extrapolate what further growth would be achieved in the following two years if this average growth rate were to be maintained: a “trends continued” projection. It must be stressed that this extrapolation is for indicative purposes only – there is no suggestion that future performance will follow that of the recent past, but the purpose is to show what could be achieved if recent trends were to continue and to further allow comparison with DECC’s various projections for 2020.
The Renewable Electricity Sector Renewable electricity deployment statistics are published by DECC quarterly in Energy Trends and annually in its Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES)2
3. Finally every year DECC publishes Updated Energy Projections (UEPs), analysing and projecting future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in the UK, based on assumptions of future economic growth, fossil fuel prices, electricity generation costs, UK population and other key variables. Renewables are only one part of the UEP, indeed the technology breakdown for renewables was only published in November 2013 following a special request, two months after the initial publication5
. . The first full data
for 2014 were published in Energy Trends on 26th March 2015 and were used to produce the graphs for historical capacity and generation from 2009, as shown below. For capacity deployment in 2015 and 2016 we have shown the 2014 deployment plus the additional capacity that would be deployed if the average annual growth rate over the period 2009 to 2014 was maintained. In order to compare past performance with projections for 2020, we have drawn on three DECC sources, the first of which we consider to be the most authoritative: 1. As part of its Electricity Market Reform Delivery Plan, DECC published National Grid’s EMR Analytical Report in December 20133.
The report provides modelled capacity
and generation projections for 2020 for a number of scenarios – we have used the reference scenario (described as ‘Scenario 1’). In order to present UK data by technology we undertook the following calculations: a) Data for Great Britain were combined with those reported separately for Northern Ireland to produce UK totals for 2020; b) We obtained from DECC a breakdown of the data classified as “Other renewables” and were therefore able to distribute the capacity and generation by technology. We consider these to be the most authoritative projections as they form the basis of forward planning under EMR. 2. Under the RED, each Member State was required to publish a National Renewable Energy Action Plan and the UK’s was published by DECC in 20104
. Although
somewhat dated now, it provides the Government’s official statement of how it plans to fulfil the UK’s obligations under the Directive. In particular Tables 10 – 12 provide year-by-year indicative projections of deployment, broken down by technology, from 2010 to 2020 for electricity, heat and transport.
www.r-e-a.net
We have included the UEP projections for comparative purposes. As for the EMR projections, a significant share of deployment is classified as ‘Other renewables’ and this has been broken down by technology using the same split as used for the EMR data. DECC is keen to emphasise that none of its projections constitute targets and they should not be viewed as such. Nevertheless, particularly the most recent ones provide a useful view of how DECC envisages each technology contributing to deployment in 2020 and a benchmark against which to judge progress to date. It must be remembered that the 2020 renewables target is expressed as a percentage share of energy consumption, so the amount of renewable energy required in 2020 will vary according to changes in energy demand; at present DECC is projecting demand to fall between now and 2020.
The Renewable Heat Sector Renewable heat consumption statistics are only published annually in DUKES (in July) so the latest year for which data exist is 20136
.
There are no data currently published for capacity however these could be inferred by using average load factors. With the advent of the Renewable Heat Incentive DECC has started to publish monthly data on the capacity of accredited installations, however this still forms a very small share of the UK’s total renewable heat capacity. Future annual updates of this report will seek to monitor progress of deployment under the RHI, as this will be the Government’s main measure in support of achieving its ambitious goal of achieving around 72 TWh renewable heat in 2020 (up from 20 TWh in 2013). As renewable heat consumption data are only available to 2013, the two year ‘trends continued’ extrapolations only cover the years 2014 and 2015. We will need to wait until the data for 2014 are published in late July 2015 to see whether the RHI has had a noticeable impact on growth. However, it must be noted that renewable heat consumption is, like heat consumption generally, strongly dependent on seasonal and annual temperature variations. Annual fluctuations in demand will therefore be superimposed on any growth in uptake of renewable heat technologies. In order to compare past performance with projections for 2020 there is only one source to draw on: the National Renewable Energy Action Plan published in 2010. The NREAP’s heat projections to 2020 (Table 11) however, do not correlate well with DUKES for NREAP’s year of publication (6.0 TWh in NREAP versus 13.6 TWh in DUKES for 2010)
and there is no clear explanation given for the discrepancy. Equally, the renewable heat production in NREAP does rise to 72 TWh in 2020, equivalent to the 12% figure set out in the 2009 UK Renewable Energy Strategy. For the latest year (2013) DUKES suggests that with 20 TWh achieved, the UK is well ahead of the NREAP trajectory (9 TWh) but this comparison needs to be treated with great caution. We will continue to engage with DECC in the hope that an updated trajectory for renewable heat to 2020 can be provided.
The Renewable Transport Sector Statistics on the UK consumption of liquid biofuels for transport are published quarterly by DECC as part of Energy Trends, drawing on HMRC’s Hydrocarbon Oils Bulletin7
. The data in Table 6.2 of Energy
Trends published on 26 March 2015 include annual consumption data for bioethanol and biodiesel from 2005 to 2014. The Department for Transport in turn publishes quarterly reports under the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation, including the national origin of the biofuels supplied under the Obligation8
, from which it can be
seen that UK sourced biofuels have varied between 8% and 22% of the total supply since 2008. Projections for 2020 again rely on the National Renewable Energy Action Plan published in 2010 (Table 12). Projected growth is based on achieving the RED’s sub-target of a 10% renewable contribution to transport by 2020 and includes a small but growing contribution from renewable electricity.
1 2009 was the year that the Renewable Energy Directive was implemented and the UK’s Renewable Energy Strategy
Energy Trends can be accessed at
http://bit.ly/1EV9ihI and DUKES at
http://bit.ly/1R0k6Um. Data in this report were taken from Table et6_1 of Energy Trends, published 26 March 2015. Data for the Biomass Power chapter are the sum of ‘Plant Biomass’ and ‘Co-firing’. Data for the Mixed Waste to Energy chapter are the sum of ‘Landfill gas’, ‘Sewage sludge
published. 2
digestion’, ‘Energy from waste’ and ‘Animal Biomass (non-AD)’. 3
EMR Delivery Plan are available at
http://bit.ly/1dhCdXH 4
at:
http://bit.ly/1m6i9bd 5
http://bit.ly/1Eho95v 6
DECC’s main 2013 UEP page is
http://bit.ly/1LhtFLp and the renewable energy breakdown is published at:
DUKES is located at
http://bit.ly/1R0k6Um. Data in this
report were taken from Table 6.6, published 31 July 2014. Data for the Biomass boilers chapter are the sum of ‘Wood combustion - domestic’, ‘Wood combustion - industrial’ and ‘Plant biomass’. Data for the Mixed Waste to Energy chapter are the sum of ‘Landfill gas’, ‘Sewage sludge digestion’, ‘Animal
Biomass’ and ‘Biodegradable energy from waste’. 7
The Bulletin is available at
http://bit.ly/1IOnsad 8 RTFO statistics are at
http://bit.ly/1EV8YiV
National Grid’s report and other documents relating to the The UK’s National Renewable Energy Action Plan is located
REview Renewable Energy View 2015 97
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