PwC RENEWABLE ENERGY VIEW 2015
Small scale solar Large scale solar Tidal and wave
Renewable heat
Investment costs, load and efficiency factors for renewable heat have been estimated by applying the assumptions as set out in DECC’s 2013 RHI Impact Assessment495051. These are summarised in the table below: Cost (£k/MW) Source of Cost assumptions Sweett
renewables, GIB press release, November 2014 19
Small Biomass
MediumBiomass Large Biomass GSHPs
Solar Thermal Small Biogas Biomethane
MediumBiogas Large Biogas CHP
ATWHPs Renewable transport Transport capacity
Estimates of consumption of liquid renewable fuels has been estimated from Ricardo- AEA “UK Production of Biofuels for road transport”44
Transport Fuel Obligation statistics”45
and the DfT’s “Renewable .
Investment costs For simplicity investment costs have been allocated to the year in which capacity additions took place.
Renewable Electricity For 2010 historical investment costs, individual technology cost data has been estimated by applying the estimates provided in DECC’s Review of the Generation Costs and Deployment Potential of Renewable Electricity Technologies in the UK (2011)46
For 2012 historical investment costs, individual technology cost data has been estimated by applying the estimates provided in DECC’s Electricity Generation Costs (2013)47
For 2011 historical investment costs, individual technology costs data has been estimated by finding the midpoint of 2010 and 2012 costs.
Projections of costs have been estimated
by applying DECC’s forecasts as published in its ‘Electricity Generation Costs’ (December 2013)48
, which high, central, low figures
were used for 2012, 2015, and 2020 costs respectively. For those years in which there are no specific cost estimates or forecasts (for example 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, or 2019), a straight line reducing average calculation has been applied. Estimates have been adjusted for inflation (using the non-housing Resource Cost Index (RCI) inflation index) in order to express investment values in 2010 money.
Table 4 provides a summary of the cost assumptions applied in this report.
577 550 357
1,295 1,308 2,000 3,300 2,000 2,733 2,644 877
Updated Energy Projections, DECC, 2014 20 Updated Energy Projections, DECC, 2013
21 Solar energy investment coming of age and attracting
Market Intelligence Market Intelligence Sweett Sweett
SKM Enviros SKM Enviros SKM Enviros SKM Enviros Ricardo AEA Sweett
institutional investors, Blue & Green, August 201 22
energy update, May 2014 23
Investors look to combine PV and wind assets, Wind
DECC DUKES includes the following technologies in the category ‘Bioenergy’: landfill gas, sewage sludge digestions, domestic & industrial wood combustion animal biomass, anaerobic digestion, plant biomass and
energy from waste. 24
DECC 25
26
National Renewable Energy Action Plan for the UK, DUKES 6.6, DECC
DECC reported energy consumption data for ‘wood combustion – domestic’ has been amended retrospectively, investment and capacity figures have
been updated for historical years. 27
methodologies, DECC 28
Historic investment costs have been derived fromthe data provided by Ecofys in its 2013 report “UK biofuel industry overview”52. No projections of forecast investment have beenmade due to a lack of industry data.
2015 29
Renewable heat Investment costs, load and efficiency factors for renewable heat have been estimated by applying the assumptions as set out in DECC’s 2013 RHI Impact Assessment49,50,51 summarised in the table above:
These are
49 RHI Tariff Review, Scheme Extensions and BudgetManagement, DECC, September 2013 50 Research on the Costs and Performance ofHeating and Cooling Technologies, DECC, February 2013 51 Analysis of Characteristics and Growth Assumptions Regarding AD Biogas Combustion for Heat, Electricity and Transport
Renewable transport Historic investment costs have been derived from the data provided by Ecofys in its 2013 report “UK biofuel industry overview”52
. No
projections of forecast investment have been made due to a lack of industry data.
and Biomethane Production and Injection to the Grid, DECC,May 2011 52 UK Biofuel Industry Overview, ECOFYS, November 2013 .
1
includes 2014 for heat and transport 2
This report is solely for the use and benefit of Renewable Energy Association and should not be relied upon by any other party. State of the renewable industry - Investments in renewable electricity, heat and transport PwC
Real 2012 3 Forecast heat investment period 2014-2020 4 The bioenergy data includes burning wood and logs in
open fire places 5
Review of the generation costs and deployment potential of renewable electricity technologies in the UK,
8
ARUP, 2011 9
catapult-reports 10
Report, Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, 2015 11
12 DUKES 6, DECC, March 2015 13 The load factor describes the ratio of actual output to
the nameplate capacity over a given period 14
2015 15
biomass CHP plant, EC, January 2015 16
energy, DECC, March 17
Renewable Energy Public Database, DECC, March State aid: commission authorises UK aid for Teesside Delivering the UK energy investment : Low carbon EDF energy renewables sells stake in three UK wind
farms to CGN, EDF Press, December 2014
Report available at
https://ore.catapult.org.uk/ore- Cost Reduction Measurement Framework Summary DUKES 6, DECC, March 2015
Renewable Energy Strategy, PwC analysis 6 DUKES 6, February 2014 & March 2015 7 Renewable Energy Strategy, PwC analysis
2010 46
Historic investment includes electricity 2010-14, heat 2010-13 and transport 2010-13 only; future investment
industry-overview-v1.5.pdf 38
DUKES6, DECC, 2012 39 DUKES Trends, DECC, Feb 2015 40 Updated Energy Projections, DECC, 2014
41 Solar thermal markets in Europe, ESTIF, June 2014 42 National Renewable Energy Action Plan for the UK,
DECC, 2009 43
Review of the Generation Costs and Deployment Potential of Renewable Electricity Technologies in the UK,
DECC, 2011 44
UK Biofuel Production, DECC, 2011
45 Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation statistics, DfT, 32
Obligation Order 2012, DECC, July 2012 47
Management, DECC, September 2013 50
Government response to the consultation on proposals
for the levels of banded support under the Renewables Obligation for the period 2013-17 and the Renewables
Electricity Generation Costs, DECC, December 2013 48 Electricity Generation Costs, DECC, December 2013 49 RHI Tariff Review, Scheme Extensions and Budget
and Cooling Technologies, DECC, February 2013 51
to the Grid, DECC, May 2011 52
2013
Research on the Costs and Performance of Heating Analysis of Characteristics and Growth Assumptions
Regarding AD Biogas Combustion for Heat, Electricity and Transport and Biomethane Production and Injection
UK Biofuel Industry Overview, ECOFYS, November
open fire places. 34
Renewable energy statistics, data sources and Quarterly non-domestic degression, DECC, January Quarterly domestic degression, DECC, January 2015
30 Quarterly domestic degression, DECC, January 2015 31 RHI Tariff Review, DECC, September 2013 32 Totals may not sum due to rounding
33 The bioenergy data includes burning wood and logs in
implementation Review, DfT, December 2013 35
2014/15 Report, DfT, November 2014 36
UK finance, Business Green, April 2014 37
Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation, Draft Post- Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation Statistics, Vireol opens new US biofuel plant after struggling for
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ uploads/attachment_data/file/266090/ecofys-uk-biofuel-
1760 980
2750 |
1720 960
2750
1680 940
2750
1640 920
2750
1600 900
2750
18 £200m of new funding available for community scale
94 REview Renewable Energy View 2015
www.r-e-a.net
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100