East Anglia ONE Offshore Windfarm Generation Assets Monitoring Plan


September, 2016


15.


It is proposed that after completion of the pre-construction ornithological monitoring, and prior to the post-construction phase, discussions will be held between the MMO and its advisors in order to agree on the details for the post-construction monitoring programme and the reporting of the survey results.


3 Survey Specifications 16.


This section provides detail on the ornithological monitoring that will be undertaken for EA ONE including the specifications, provisional timings and frequencies, and the approach to reporting and presenting the findings.


3.1.1 Pre-construction monitoring 3.1.1.1 Background - Aerial Survey Power analysis


17.


This section provides a summary of the approach to, and conclusions of, the Aerial Survey Power Analysis report that is included in full within Appendix B. The outcomes of the power analysis have been incorporated into the proposed ornithological survey approach presented in this document.


18.


The specific survey requirements set out in correspondence from the MMO (18th December 2015) which were addressed in the Aerial Survey Power Analysis report (Appendix B) are:


• The methodology will be designed to identify if auk locations are influenced by the presence of the EA ONE wind farm; • Survey design will combine east-west transects of the wider survey area (including minimum 4km buffers to the east, west and south and 8km to the north), with additional transects of the wind farm aligned with turbines which will be orientated approximately north-south;


• Flight height information will be collected for analysis, with a particular focus on gannet, but (as a minimum) also considering kittiwake and great black-backed gull; and,


• Survey effort (number of surveys to be carried out per month) and percentage coverage, as informed by power analysis, will be agreed with the MMO.


19.


The Aerial Survey Power Analysis report (Appendix B) provided a summary of the methods which were used to simulate bird distributions before and after wind farm construction, consideration of alternative aerial survey designs and methods for data analysis. Several combinations of survey design and frequency were assessed in relation to the power to detect given changes in seabird abundance distribution. By repeating this process, the power to detect changes was estimated as the proportion of simulations in which the known effect was correctly detected. The analysis considered two effects; displacement and macro-avoidance.


20.


A summary of the main conclusions from the Aerial Survey Power Analysis report is provided here. Appendix B should be referred to for the full detail.


21.


The probability of detecting displacement effects was estimated for gannet, kittiwake and guillemot, with the power to detect changes negatively related to the relative densities of these species. Hence the least abundant species (gannet) required the highest survey effort to attain the standard threshold used in power analysis (80% probability of detecting a significant effect).


22.


The gannet breeding population of greatest concern in relation to EA ONE is that at Flamborough and Filey Coast pSPA. The timing of the autumn peak in numbers recorded on the wind farm is consistent with southward migration of individuals from this colony (but also from the much larger colonies further north such as Bass Rock), highlighting the value of focussing survey effort during this period (Garthe et al. 2012, Furness 2015). In order to reach a power of 80% for gannet it was necessary to increase survey frequency during the migration period (October and November). Using this design it was estimated that a 50% displacement rate from the wind farm area could be reliably detected following construction of the wind farm.


23.


Guillemot were the most abundant species recorded during baseline surveys and thus the power analysis indicated that a displacement rate of 30% would be reliably detected from single monthly surveys conducted during the period of peak presence (December – March). Kittiwake numbers peaked in November and December and therefore the additional survey


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