Technical
Phosphorus III
The Peak Phosphorus debate...
In the third of a series of three, Mike Atherton looks at the Peak Phosphorus Debate and, having followed many paths in his quest to quench his unrelenting curiosity, ends up talking a load of ...
A 128 I PC JUNE/JULY 2015
s I come to pen this, the final article in a series of three, I find myself in contemplative mood. I have read, and re-read all of my research on the Phosphorus industry over and over
again - a path I initially set out on a little over two years ago. During one of my routine, late night research sessions of alternative products and plant/soil management strategies, I stumbled across the term ‘Peak Phosphorus’. “What is this Peak Phosphorus?” I recall asking myself. My painfully annoying inquisitive streak
kicked in, and off I set on a path of what I can only describe as a very, very long road. Prior to stumbling across the Peak Phosphorus debate, my knowledge of the product was pretty much limited to what I had been told by visiting sales reps, read in glossy sales brochures, or the smattering of information gleaned from the texts of a couple of vocational qualifications which I undertook a little earlier in my career, so not a great deal in all honesty. Whilst on this eye opening path, many roads
have been followed, as my unrelenting curiosity has driven me to research one linked subject after another. As I have written about several facets of the phosphate rock industry in the last two articles in this series, I now find myself finishing the series of articles where this journey started out for me.
The Peak Phosphorus debate:
The term Peak Phosphorus is a descriptive of the moment when demand for phosphate rock will exceed supply. Phosphate Rock is a finite resource and, given the ever increasing demands for its use, economically extractable reserves are dwindling. Current estimates suggest that we could reach that time as early as 2030, with total stocks being exhausted within 50-100 years, though these figures are hotly contested within the geological sector - some researchers state that phosphate rock reserves will not diminish for at least 200 years. Whilst I am no geologist and, therefore, am unable to give an accurate timescale for this ever looming shortage, I am acutely aware of the potential impacts that such a shortage can have on our industry. We have already experienced something of a
precursor to the Peak Phosphorus issue. Those that recall the unexpected, overnight 800% price hike in phosphate rock in 2007/8 would do well to recall the day that their sales reps called to inform them of this economic meltdown - I have a clear recollection of one of my preferred sales reps apologetically explaining the situation to me during a routine visit. The cause of this overnight hike was several
fold - China had imposed a 135% export tariff, Moroccan rock phosphate prices tripled, rising
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