POWER CURVE WORKING GROUP
ENERGY YIELD PREDICTIONS UNLOCKING VALUE THROUGH INDUSTRY COLLABORATION
‘How much energy will this wind farm generate if I invest in it?’
Peter Stuart, Head of Technical Innovation at RES (Renewable Energy Systems) and co- ordinator of the Power Curve Working Group industry collaboration shares his views…
Like many good questions this is simple to ask, difficult to answer and it matters. It matters to investors as it underpins their decisions. How accurately it is answered matters because it will influence how much risk investors perceive their investment holds.
INVESTMENT BASIS
Investments are performed on the basis of exceeding a minimum level of return for a given level of risk, often described as ‘hurdle rate’. The risk is partly quantified by the predicted energy yield and associated uncertainty and further influenced by the perception as to whether these predictions are accurate, realistic and unbiased.
As wind energy matures and subsidies are reduced, wind farm revenues are under enormous pressure. To gain investment, new projects must increase the accuracy of their predictions and once built, they must then demonstrate achieving those predictions in a consistent, reliable way.
In order to accomplish this, two things must happen, both involving many challenges…
• Costs must fall to increase/maintain investor returns
• Accuracy of energy yield predictions must increase, thereby improving investor confidence by reducing their risk
COLLABORATION
Industry collaboration is the single most important tool we have in meeting these challenges. Reducing costs will involve vertical collaboration throughout the wind energy supply chain. Reducing energy yield risk will require collaboration focused on the following three pillars… • Correctly identifying the input wind conditions to a wind turbine
• Accurately defining a wind turbine’s power curve: its power generation response to wind conditions
• Comprehensive and transparent validation of these methods
INDUSTRY FOCUS
Potentially innovative technical collaboration between manufacturers, developers and consultants far too often has fallen foul of organisational boundaries and contractual wrangles. The industry needs to focus on reducing the total energy risk, for all players, rather than on how best to contractually divide the existing level of risk. Similarly, all players need to understand the greater benefit of improved industry consensus, relative to the development of proprietary methodologies kept within the boundaries of a single organisation.
SO, HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL THIS WIND FARM GENERATE IF I INVEST IN IT? Collaboration holds the answer to unlocking value, for the benefit of both our industry and the environment which it serves to protect.
Peter Stuart
Head of Technical Innovation RES
Click to view more info
www.windenergynetwork.co.uk
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