8 FROM SUBSISTENCE TO PROFIT
resource base, smallholder farmers are especially sensi- tive to rising temperatures, changing precipitation pat- terns, increasing risk of crop pests and diseases, and more frequent extreme weather events—all of which can raise the incidence of crop failure and harm livelihoods. Cli- mate change is likely to aggravate existing nonclimatic stress factors for smallholders, such as marginal land use and limited access to technical knowledge, insurance, and financial services. Projections of the potential impact of climate change point to further threats to already strained global food production systems, with the yield of major smallholder crops—such as wheat, maize, and rice—pre- dicted to decrease in many areas (Lobell, Schlenker, and Costa-Roberts 2011; Nelson et al. 2010). Moreover, results from model simulations show that climate change–induced losses in agricultural productivity are largest in develop- ing countries, with losses forecast to reach 10–20 per- cent throughout Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, regions where smallholder populations are relatively large (Wheeler 2011). Extreme natural events—such as droughts, wildfires,
heat waves, and floods—have the capacity to threaten the already fragile livelihoods of smallholders. Evidence from Malawi shows that small-scale farmers suffer greater drought- and flood-induced economic losses than medium- and large-scale farmers (Figure 2) (Pauw, Turlow, and van Seventer 2010). For example, small-scale farm- ers are more likely to pro- duce drought-sensitive maize while medium- and large-scale farmers grow more drought- resistant tobacco. Tis dif- ference in cropping paterns means that smallholders experience greater economic losses during droughts. Simi- larly, findings from Mexico reveal that smallholder and subsistence farmers are more likely than larger-scale farmers to live in areas where agricul- ture is highly vulnerable to
-0.5 0.0 0.5
-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0
Source: Authors, based on data from Pauw, Thurlow, and van Seventer (2010). -3.0
Drought Flood
climate change and where the largest increase in vulnerabil- ity will occur in the coming decades (Borja-Vega and de la Fuente 2013). In other words, smallholders are more likely to experience climatic extremes that will add stress and uncertainty to their production systems, and these small- holders have less adaptive capacity and are more sensitive to these changes. In recent years, several consecutive poor rainy seasons
led to a severe drought in large parts of the Horn of Africa, resulting in crop and livestock losses alongside lower yields in crop and livestock production among the region’s small- holder farmers and pastoralist communities. As a result, many of the region’s smallholder farmers and pastoral- ists have become more food insecure and cash strapped. In Ethiopia, for example, where a significant fraction of the rural population consists of semi-nomadic herders or pastoralists, drought has had devastating impacts on the rural poor. A changing climate has the potential to magnify the vulnerability of global food systems by increasing the occurrence of unpredictable and extreme weather as well as generating a rise in sea levels, thereby posing progressively more complex and frequent challenges to food producers and consumers alike.
FIGURE 2 Expected impact of drought and floods on Malawian farmers’ annual earnings
Small-scale farmers Medium-scale farmers Large-scale farmers
Change in earnings (%)
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