VOICES CHARLIE JEFFERY
membership is increasingly sceptical on NATO withdrawal. And the removal of nuclear weapons would surely be central to any independence negotiations, and current positions could shift in those negotiations.
Would Scotland set up embassies, for instance in Ireland/ Nordic countries? And would it become a separate member of and fully represented at the UN? CJ: Yes, an independent Scotland would set up embassies, but might well look to negotiate an arrangement to share facilities with the Rest-UK. And yes, it would be a full member of the UN. What would Scottish independence mean for Wales and NI. Would the UK become an English state in all but name? CJ: Wales and Northern Ireland would become
Rest-UK Governments about the distribution of assets and liabilities between the two states. What would be the main sources of state income? Is it viable to remain highly dependent on oil/gas revenue if climate change might mean increasing taxation on carbon emissions? CJ: Again the answer is unknowable until and unless it happens, but clearly North Sea revenues would be a much bigger proportion of an independent Scotland’s revenues than they are currently in the UK. The challenges are perhaps less about carbon taxation than the often substantial fluctuations in world oil and gas prices which directly affect tax revenues. Hedging against such fluctuations would be a central priority. The most important longer term hedge would be future incomes from renewable energy sources, especially wind, wave and tidal power, where Scotland has massive potential. How will Scotland fund major infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail? CJ: Just as other states do: by using tax revenues
and by borrowing on capital markets. On the latter – and no doubt with a view to potential future pronouncements of ratings agencies – the SNP’s finance minister John Swinney has been projecting an image of steadfast fiscal prudence. Would the Scottish-based UK army regiments become Scottish and how would defence policy be split? What about the nuclear submarines? How much would changes cost? CJ: There are plenty of hints that the SNP
would like to maintain a defence union with the rest of the UK if it became independent, which would make any transition around Scottish- based UK forces easier to envisage. But there are big sticking points: the SNP’s commitment to withdraw Scotland from NATO, and its commitment to the removal of nuclear weapons from Scotland. It should be noted that recent research among SNP members by James Mitchell of Strathclyde University has shown that the SNP
28 SOCIETY NOW SPRING 2012
The ‘Yes’ campaign will be fronted by the SNP, with a formidable campaigning machine, a clear message and a leader of real presence
a smaller periphery to the UK’s core in England. They might well look to establish greater levels of autonomy to maintain balance with ‘Anglo- UK’. There are signs in recent research by the Universities of Edinburgh and Cardiff and the Institute for Public Policy research that the English are beginning to look for their own institutions of self-government. The UK could transform into a looser grouping of self-governing nations as a consequence of Scottish independence.
Who would be the head of state of an independent Scotland? Would it be the Queen as the SNP prefers or would the post of president or equivalent be created? CJ: The SNP has been quite clear that Queen
Elizabeth is also ‘The Queen of Scots’ and would be the head of state of an independent Scotland. Would Scotland have its own Research Council? CJ: The SNP has talked of sharing some
services with the Rest-UK should Scotland become independent, with payments made to UK bodies for the supply of services to Scotland. The Research Councils would, from a Scottish perspective, be a strong candidate for service-sharing. Whether a Rest-UK Government would agree – in this or in other areas – would be another agenda item for post-referendum negotiations.
If independent would Scotland develop national squads for the Olympic games? And would it have its own Eurovision entry? CJ: Yes – but would we see the kind of vote co- ordination between Scotland and Rest-UK that we see among the Nordic states, or the Balkans? Would the UK-wide sports teams such as the Lions be broken up and what would that do for social cohesion across the countries? CJ: The rugby union Lions is already a joint
team of two independent states, the UK and Ireland. There is no reason in principle this couldn’t continue. And don’t forget the Ryder Cup, which generates continent-wide cohesion around one of Scotland’s national games. n
i
Professor Charlie Jeffery is head of School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh
Email
charlie.jeffery@
ed.ac.uk Telephone 0131 650 3553 Web
www.pol.ed.ac.uk
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