VOICES CHARLIE JEFFERY A question of independence
Devolution and constitutional expert Professor Charlie Jeffery explains some of the possible business, social, economic and political effects of an independent Scotland
How likely is Scottish independence? Charlie Jeffery: There are now more or less weekly opinion polls on the Scottish constitutional debate. They ask different questions in different ways. Very few have indicated that independence is a more popular option than the status quo. That said, we are not yet in a referendum campaign. When the campaign proper starts, the ‘Yes’ campaign will be fronted by a party, the SNP, with a formidable campaigning machine, a clear message and a leader of real presence. It is not clear how a ‘No’ campaign would be set up, how clear its message would be – as it would necessarily bring together different groupings with different views – or what leadership it would have. What both opinion polls and more
sophisticated time series on public attitudes on the constitutional question show, is that the most popular constitutional option in Scotland is neither the status quo nor independence, but some variant of fuller devolution – ‘devo-max’ or ‘devo-plus’. Whether or not fuller devolution will be on the ballot paper in the referendum is not yet clear – the Scottish Government is open to it, the UK Government opposed – but if it were, the bookies would have that as the shortest odds outcome. Would Scotland be financially better or worse off if independent from the UK? CJ: Like many questions about Scottish
independence the answer is unknowable unless and until it happens. Supporters of independence claim that a Scotland with the fiscal policy levers of an independent state would be better able to respond to Scottish needs than UK-wide policies currently can. Opponents point to risks of not being part of a larger state with a greater capacity to pool risk. Perhaps the best guide are the annual estimates of all government spending and revenues in Scotland, produced by the Scottish Government and generally regarded as reliable, which suggest that if tax revenues from oil and gas in Scottish waters are included, then Scotland has generally ‘paid its way’ in the UK in the last few years. What currency would Scotland use? Could it issue its own currency or adopt the euro for example? CJ: The SNP Government’s policy is that
an independent Scotland would use the pound sterling, and would look to a direct relationship with the Bank of England to co-ordinate Scotland’s fiscal policies with the needs of a Rest-UK/Scottish shared currency area. It is not yet clear what kind of relationship the Bank of
26 SOCIETY NOW SPRING 2012
England would foresee, or indeed what the UK Government thinks about such discussions and co-ordination within a single currency area that the rest of the UK would dominate. Scotland certainly could issue its own currency, but the SNP Government would prefer to find a way of maintaining the Bank of England’s monetary policy framework to help underpin the Scottish economy. The Euro remains in principle an alternative in the longer term, but given the Eurozone’s current problems is unlikely to be a real alternative for the foreseeable future. Would an independent Scotland be able to sustain free university tuition fees without financial support from the UK? CJ: If Scotland were independent, students from the rest of the UK would, under EU rules, have access to the same conditions as Scottish domiciled students, that is at the moment free university tuition. The SNP Government would ideally like – whether or not Scotland becomes independent – to explore ways of levying some kind of administrative charge on EU students, which would then apply also to the rest of UK students if Scotland were independent. Scotland would certainly be able to sustain free tuition because the number of ‘free’ (that is taxpayer- funded) places would be the same as now; the problem would be the high level of demand that might come from English students if fees there remain at current levels and the danger that Scottish students would be crowded out from Scottish universities by overwhelming English demand.
If economic and fiscal policy powers were to revert to Scotland would there be a radically different policy followed than currently in the UK. For example, would taxation be higher to fund better public services? CJ: All the hints from the SNP have been about lower tax burdens, especially in corporate taxation. Scotland does have higher public spending per head than in England, but the annual revenue and spending estimates also suggest that Scotland raises more tax revenues per head than England, if North Sea revenues in Scottish waters are attributed to Scotland.
If Scotland became independent who would grant licences for oil/gas extraction? How would the investments that BP or Shell have made in oil extraction be affected? CJ: If Scotland were independent, the Scottish
Government would grant new licences. Existing licences would no doubt be a key issue in any post-referendum negotiation between Scottish and
▲
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32