Commodities, Except Beans, Slid Downward CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5
HEUER SONS IMPLEMENT CO. 861 South Kingshighway Cape Girardeau, MO 63703
573-335-7470
heuerson@yahoo.com
Used Equipment
presentations this week at the Ag Out- look Forum used soybean acres of 75 million for 2012 production, which would be unchanged from last year. Harvested acres are estimated up 500,000 acres at 74.1 million acres. A trend line yield of 43.9 bushels per acre would produce a 3.250 billion crop, 194 million bushels higher than 2011. Demand based mainly on a 250 million bushel increase in exports to a record 1.550 billion bushels would see total usage increase to 3.335 billion bushels. Ending stocks would drop from 275 million bushels to 205 million bushels. Record exports are possible but if achieved it most likely would mean that the old crop exports did not meet cur- rent expectations and beginning stocks started greater than 275 million bushels. The season average price for 2012/13 is estimated at $11.50 bushel, 20 cents lower than the current 2011/12 projection. The USDA num- bers from the Ag Outlook Forum are friendly to soybean prices, and have in- dicated that soybean prices may have a need to be more competitive with corn. I am currently 5% priced and I would sell into this rally by pricing another 15 percent at current levels to 20 percent overall. Producers could use a $12.42 futures stop as a pricing point should prices drop back to that level, but I think from a price risk management standpoint some level of pricing should be locked in. Wheat: Nearby: May futures contract closed
at $6.41 ¼ a bushel, down 6 ½ cents a bushel since Friday. Support is at $6.28 with resistance at $6.49 a bushel. Technical
indicators have
changed to a sell bias. Weekly exports were within expectations at 27.8 mil- lion bushels (25.8 million bushels for 2011/12 and 2.0 million bushels for 2012/13). New Crop: July wheat closed at $6.53
a bushel, down 5 ¾ cents since last week. Support is at $6.39 with resist- ance at $6.61 a bushel. Technical indi- cators have a sell bias. USDA estimates 58 million acres of wheat for the 2012/13 marketing year which would be an increase of 4.6 million acres for 2011 and higher than previous analyst average guesses. At a yield of 44.5 bushels per acre, production would be 3.130 billion bushels. Demand of 2.173 billion bushels is forecast slightly higher than 2011/12 and would result in ending stocks of 975 million bushels as compared to 2011/12 projection of 845 million bushels in stocks. The sea- son average price is estimated at $6.30 bushel down $1 a bushel
from
2011/12. I am currently 10 percent priced for the 2012 crop and would use the $6.50 mark as a stop loss to price more. Otherwise, I would move my stop up if prices move up. I think at this point, wheat will look to corn and soy- beans for direction although some sup- port could be coming from dry weather in the U.S. and Eastern Europe.
CHUCK DANEHOWER: Extension
Area Specialist/Farm Management, Uni- versity of Tennessee
∆
GC2300 ‘06, 4wd, 23 hp $9,300
CaseIH MX240 ‘99, 205 hp $60,000
MF698 4C, ‘83, 79 hp $8,500
White6195 4C, 3000 hrs., 195 hp $50,000
Top Air Sprayer T1100 60’ $8,000 10• MidAmerica Farmer Grower / March 2, 2012
AgcoAllis 9435 4000 hrs., 4C, 135 hp $40,000
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