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Total U.S. Rice Supplies Projected Down This Year rice


outlook


252.5 million cwt, 15 percent below the year-earlier record. In 2011/12, a much smaller crop has more than offset a larger carryin and higher expected imports. The 2011/12 U.S. rice crop remains es-


T ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC Market Outlook on Rice is sponsored by RiceTec, Inc.


here were no U.S. supply-side revi- sions this month. The total 2011/12 U.S. rice supply remains forecast at


timated at 185.0 million cwt, down 24 percent from the year-earlier record and the smallest since 1998/99. Production declined in 2011/12 in all reported States except California. By class, long- grain production is estimated at 116.4 million, a 37-percent decline from a year earlier and the smallest U.S. long-grain crop since 1996/97. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 68.6 million cwt, 15 per- cent higher than a year earlier and the


largest on record. Beginning stocks of all-rice remain esti-


mated at 48.5 million cwt, 33 percent larger than a year earlier and the largest since 1987/88. The 2011/12 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 35.6 million cwt, 55 percent larger than a year earlier. In contrast, the medium/short-grain car-


ryin is calculated at 10.1 million cwt, 16 percent below a year earlier. Beginning stocks of brokens are calculated at 2.7 million cwt, a 91-percent increase from a year earlier. Total U.S. rice imports for 2011/12 re-


main forecast at 19.0 million cwt, almost 4 percent above a year earlier, but well below the 2007/08 record of 23.9 million cwt. Long-grain imports remain projected at 16.5 million cwt, up 4 percent


from DOMESTIC HIGHLIGHTS


2010/11. Thailand supplies more than 60 percent of U.S. long-grain imports, with its premium jas- mine rice accounting for nearly all of its shipments to the United States. India is the second largest U.S. supplier, ac- counting for 15 percent of U.S. long-grain rice imports. U.S. medium- and short-grain imports


remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, virtu- ally unchanged from 2010/11. This month, the U.S. 2011/12 average


milling rate was lowered to 70.00 percent from a preliminary 70.75 percent based on August-December milling data re- ported by the Rice Millers Association. The lower milling rate implies more rough-rice is needed to produce a given quantity of milled rice for export or do- mestic markets. This is the first objective estimate of the 2011/12 average milling rate based on actual milling data. U.S. 2011/12 Export Forecast Lowered to 89.0 Million Cwt


Total use of U.S. rice in 2011/12 is pro-


jected at 213.0 million cwt, down 1.0 mil- lion cwt from last month’s forecast and 15


• There were no U.S. supply-side revisions this month. • Total U.S. rice imports for 2011/12 remain forecast at 19.0 million cwt. • The 2011/12 season-average farm price for U.S. long-grain rice was lowered 10 cents on the low end and 50 cents on the high end.


percent below the year-earlier record. By class, long-grain total use is projected at 147.0 million cwt, 1.0 million cwt below last month and 21 percent smaller than the year-earlier record. In contrast, medium/short-grain total use remains forecast at a near- record 66.0 million cwt, 5 percent above a year earlier. Total domestic and


residual use of all-rice in 2011/12 remains projected at 124.0 million cwt, down 10 percent from the year- earlier record. Com- bined medium- and short-grain domestic


disappearance remains projected at 35.0 million cwt, an increase of 19 percent from 2010/11. Total exports of U.S. rice in 2011/12 are


projected at 89.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 26 percent below 2010/11. U.S. long-grain exports are projected at


58.0 million cwt, 1.0 million cwt below last month’s forecast and 26 percent below a year earlier. These are the small- est U.S. long- grain exports since 1996/97. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Mid- dle East, Central America, and South America account for most of the expected decline in U.S. long-grain exports in 2011/12. The year-to-year decline is mostly a result of greater competition from other suppliers and, in some import markets, larger domestic crops. Combined medium- and short-grain ex-


ports remain projected at 31.0 million cwt, 8 percent below a year earlier. The United States is facing much stronger competition from both Australia and


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12• MidAmerica Farmer Grower / February 24, 2012


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Case Credit is a brand of CNH Capital. Case IH and Case Credit are registered trademarks of CNH America LLC. CNH Capital is a trademark of CNH America LLC.© 2004 CNH America LLC. All Rights Reserved.www.caseih.com


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