and for the benefit of the Mexican infrastructure itself, which is fuelled to a large degree from all-important tourist dollars that come into the country every year.
“Essentially, according to the government,” Goy says, “We’ve called a travel advisory against Mexico. As far as their interpretation of the stats, something like 115 Canadians have been killed in Mexico since January 1st, 2006, as a direct result of the Drug Wars in Mexico. This is costly misinterpreted and misconstrued information, which improperly gives the impression that these casualties have been a direct result of violence. Much later in the document,” says Goy, “It becomes clear that, in fact, only 12 people have been murdered.”
“Meantime, the U.S. has done very much the same thing. They put a warning on every American border - conveying this improper information. Questions asked by many travelers in the face of such information: What exactly are the incidences? What are the details so I can be properly informed, are left unanswered,” Goy says.
The perception with many RVers is that there may be a vested interest in keeping the money at home. “Down there (Mexico), you pay 76 cents a litre for gas and 80 cents a litre for diesel - plus you have inexpensive food and living expenses. Medical costs are way less as well in Baja: a friend of ours broke an arm and paid $75 to have it fixed. Compare this to the same procedure in the U.S., which would ring in at about $5000. Alot of money goes south. Look at the numbers and consider that there are approximately 800,000 RV snowbirds in California and Arizona every winter; many believe it’s a smear campaign to keep this money in the U.S. Whatever the incentive is for the skewed statistics, consider the fact that twenty years
ago there were 5000 RVers in Baja on average per year: last year there were 500.” Goy points out that the real numbers indicate travel to Mexico is considerably safer than risking vehicle traffic in the USA.
“The odds of being a fatal victim of drug violence in various isolated places in Mexico, when compared with the chances of being a fatal victim of a traffic accident in the USA, are much, much lower. The US Department of Commerce estimates that about 19 million US citizens visit Mexico each year. According to MSNBC, in 2010 at least 106 Americans were killed in Mexico as a result of drug violence (in August 2010, USA Today ran a story “Mexico’s Violence not as widespread
At the end of the meeting they handed “
me some briefing notes regarding their stats on the matter: their stats are out to lunch. The
paper reads more like a political document - an election platform - than an accurate statistical device.
as it seems” indicating that stats were in fact being misconstrued). Dividing the 19 million visits by the 106 deaths suggests that the chance of a visitor being killed on a trip to Mexico in 2010 was about 1 in 179,000. Even if the stats were properly being interpreted, these are good odds, much better than
”
the annual chance of being killed in a US traffic accident - which is about 9,000 to 1. In other words, the chances of dying in a US traffic accident are roughly 20 times greater than being killed as a consequence of drug violence while visiting Mexico.”
The fact remains,”Goy writes, “that some areas of Mexico experience much more drug violence than others. For example, drug violence deaths in Ciudad Juárez are 16 times greater than the Mexico national average. Consequently, the chance of an American visitor getting killed in drug violence in Ciudad Juárez is about 11,400 to 1, still safer than risking traffic in the USA. Consider the risks for a range of Mexican locations compared to the risks of US traffic: in the city of Puebla, the risk is one in 6.6 million compared to one in 750,000 for Mexico City; one in 570,000 for Guadalajara; one in 360,000 for Cancún; about one in 300,000 for Chapala and Puerto Vallarta, and about one in 50,000 for Tijuana and Mazatlán.”
“These results indicate that the chance of a visitor being killed by drug violence in Mexico is extremely unlikely, far less likely than the risk of being killed in a US traffic accident. For example, a visit to Chapala is 33 times safer than risking US traffic for a year, while Mexico City is 83 times safer. Though this analysis focuses on the travel of US tourists to Mexico, the results are equally relevant for visitors from other countries.”
Dan’s Blog:
www.bajaamigos.net/july- 30-2011-which-is-safer-mexico-or-the- streets-of-the-us/
Check next issue for a feature on best practices for safe, fun travel in Mexico and for more from AMAR.
rvsnowbirds.com
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