Select 2010 Publications POLICY BRIEFS


The Role of Emerging Countries in Global Food Security Shenggen Fan and Joanna Brzeska


2020 Focus 18: Innovations in Rural and Agriculture Finance Edited by Renate Kloeppinger-Todd and Manohar Sharma


BOOKS AND RESEARCH MONOGRAPHS


2010 Global Hunger Index: The Challenge of Hunger: Focus on the Crisis of Child Undernutrition Klaus von Grebmer et al.


Proven Successes in Agricultural Development: A Technical Compendium to Millions Fed Edited by David J. Spielman and Rajul Pandya-Lorch


Michelle Adato is a senior research fellow in the Poverty, Health, and Nutrition division of the International Food Policy Research Institute. She is coeditor of Agricultural Research, Livelihoods, and Poverty: Studies of Economic and Social Impacts in Six Countries, also published by the International Food Policy Research Institute and Johns Hopkins.


John Hoddinott is deputy director of the Poverty, Health, and Nutrition division of the International Food Policy Research Institute.


“Over a decade ago, various Latin American countries launched a new generation of poverty reduction programs, associating investments in the human capital of poor households with monetary income transfers; positive results to date have led to their adoption in other regions. Adato and Hoddinott have gathered a notable group of researchers to assess issues of program design and evaluation, together with broader topics of political economy. The work draws on the extensive involvement and experience of the International Food Policy Research Institute with these programs. The quality and relevance of the essays, and the mix of quantitative and qualitative techniques, ensures that this book will be very valuable and useful for all concerned with poverty alleviation, in Latin America and beyond.”


Santiago Levy, Vice President for Sectors, Inter-American Development Bank


“This state-of-the-art study brings together a refreshing combination of quantitative, institu- tional, and qualitative social analyses, including an especially original focus on gender dynam- ics. The editors ask: Are conditional cash transfer programs indeed a “magic bullet” for dealing with poverty? While their answer is clearly “no,” this book offers a nuanced look at what CCTs have accomplished and where they fall short. The book demonstrates, for example, that CCT programs do increase the poor’s use of education and health services, but the under-supply of quality, accessible health care and education remains a constraint on the strategy’s potential impact. The book’s editors rightly see these gaps as CCTs’ challenge for the ‘second decade.’”


FOCUS18 2 0 2 0


INNOVATIONS IN RURAL AND AGRICULTURE FINANCE


CCT_Jacket.indd 1


EDITED BY RENATE KLOEPPINGER-TODD AND MANOHAR SHARMA


Proven Successes in Agricultural Development


Jonathan Fox, Professor, Latin American and Latino Studies Department, University of California at Santa Cruz


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE


THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY PRESS Baltimore


www.press.jhu.edu


A TechnicAl compendium To MillionS FeD Edited by David J. Spielman and Rajul Pandya-Lorch


Jacket design by Shirong Gao (IFPRI.org)


ISBN 13: 978-0-8018-9498-5 ISBN 10: 0-8018-9498-0


As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pres-


sure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further chal- lenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world’s population. Tis study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be and suggests some steps policymakers can take to remedy the situation.


Using various modeling techniques, the authors project 15 different future scenarios for food security through 2050. Each scenario involves an alternative combination of potential population and income growth and climate change. Te authors also examine the specific test case of a hypothetical extended drought in South Asia, to demonstrate the possible effects of increased climate variability on a particular world region. Tey conclude that the negative effects of climate change on food security can be counteracted by broad-based economic growth—particularly improved agricultural productivity—and robust international trade in agricultural products to offset regional shortages. In pursuit of these goals, policymak- ers should increase public investment in land, water, and nutrient use and maintain relatively free international trade. Tis inquiry into the future of food security should be of use to policymakers and others concerned with the impact of climate change on international development.


Cover Photography by Jacob Silberberg/Panos Pictures and Stockbyte Cover design by Julia Vivalo/IFPRI


ISBN 978-0-89629-178-2


Cover Illustration adapted from photography by © Giacomo Pirozzi / Panos Cover Design by Julia Vivalo


Community-driven development (CDD) has attracted the attention of governments and international organizations through its promise of sustainable, pro-poor development that involves local communities in program design and decisionmaking. Empirical evidence of CDD’s effective- ness has not been very strong, however, with some studies providing support to CDDs and others not. This study addresses this problem, offering fresh analysis of CDD programs by assessing the Fadama II Project, the largest agricultural CDD program in Nigeria. Fadama II aimed to increase the income of farmers, fishers, and other poor people in Nigeria’s low-lying floodplains, or fadama areas, where poverty is concentrated. Drawing on a survey of the experiences of almost two thousand Nigerians—both Fadama II participants and those outside the project’s parameters—the authors identify key strengths and weaknesses of the program. Fadama II has succeeded in raising beneficia- ries’ real incomes by roughly 60 percent and dramatically increasing the value of productive assets owned by private and civil society organizations. More- over, by promoting public goods such as roads, Fadama II has even benefited people who were not participants in the project. Nevertheless, the poorest households, including those headed by women, have yet to see their incomes increase as dramatically as those of better-off households. Also, participation in Fadama II depended partially on financial contributions often beyond the means of poorer households. Future CDD programs need to address these problems through improved targeting of poor and vulnerable groups, creation of affordable rural credit services, and other reforms. This study offers a carefully balanced analysis that will be valuable to policymakers, donors, and others interested in the potential of community-driven development.


Ephraim Nkonya is a senior research fellow in the Environment and Production Technology Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.


Dayo Phillip is a professor of agricultural economics at the Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Lafia Campus, Nigeria.


Tewodaj Mogues is a research fellow in the Development Strategy and Governance Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.


Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy B. Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You


John Pender is a senior economist in the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. He was previously a senior research fellow in the Environment and Production Technology Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.


Edward Kato is a research analyst in the Environment and Production Technology Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.


The dramatic surge in food prices from 2005 to 2008 seriously threatened the world’s poor, who struggle to buy food even under normal circum- stances, and led to protests and riots in the developing world. The crisis eventually receded, but such surges could recur unless steps are taken to prevent them. Using up-to-date informa- tion, the authors of Reflections on the Global Food Crisis identify the key causes of the food price surge, its consequences for global poverty, and the challenges involved in preventing another crisis.


Breaking from many earlier interpretations, the authors conclude that the crisis was not


primarily fostered by increased demand for meat products in rising economies such as China and India, or by declines in agricultural yields or food stocks, or by futures market speculation. Instead, they attribute the rising food prices to a combination of rising energy prices; growing demand for biofuels; the U.S. dollar depreciation; and various trade shocks related to export restrictions, panic purchases, and unfavorable weather. As part of their analysis, the authors also provide the first comprehensive review of both the macroeconomic and microeconomic consequences of the crisis, as well as a detailed comparison of the current crisis with the food price crisis of 1974.


To prevent another crisis, the authors conclude that the global food system should be


reformed through several key steps: make trade in agricultural commodities more free yet more secure; address long-term threats to agricultural productivity, such as climate change and resource degradation; scale up social protection in potentially food-insecure countries; and encourage agricultural production in at least some of the countries now heavily depen- dent on food imports. Reflections on the Global Food Crisis will be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with the world’s poorest people.


CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS


Derek Headey is a research fellow in the Development Strategy and Governance Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., and is based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.


IN LATIN AMERICA edited by Michelle Adato & John Hoddinott


Shenggen Fan is the director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.


CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS


IN LATIN AMERICA edited by Michelle Adato & John Hoddinott


Conditional Cash Transfers in Latin America Edited by Michelle Adato and John Hoddinott


Reflections on the Global Food Crisis: How Did It Hap- pen? How Has It Hurt? And How Can We Prevent the Next One? Shenggen Fan and Derek Headey


Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options Gerald C. Nelson et al.


From the Ground Up: Impacts of a Pro-Poor Community-Driven Development Project in Nigeria Ephraim Nkonya et al.


families that are conditional on their participation in education, health, and nutrition services—have become a vital part of poverty reduction strategies in many countries, particularly in Latin America. In Conditional Cash Trans- fers in Latin America, the contribu- tors analyze and synthesize evidence from case studies of CCTs in Brazil, Honduras, Mexico, and Nicaragua. The studies examine many aspects of CCTs, including the trends in devel- opment and political economy that fostered interest in them; their costs; their impacts on education, health, nutrition, and food consumption; and how CCT programs affect social rela- tions shaped by gender, culture, and community. Throughout, the authors identify the strengths and weaknesses of CCTs and offer guidelines to those who design them.


C


onditional cash transfer programs (CCTs)—cash grants to poor


By Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan Reflections on the


9 780896 291782


Global Food Crisis


How did it happen? How has it hurt? And how can we prevent the next one? 12/17/2010 3:19:04 PM


ISBN 978 -0- 89629 -186 -7


ISBN 978-0-89629-179-9


Impacts of a Pro-Poor Community-Driven


FOR FOOD, AGRICULTURE, AND THE ENVIRONMENT


97 80896 291867


Cover Illustration adapted from photography by © Abdullahi Surajo Cover Design by Julia Vivalo


9 780896 291799


Development Project in Nigeria


EPHRAIM NKONYA, DAYO PHILLIP, TEWODAJ MOGUES, JOHN PENDER, AND EDWARD KATO


22


The Role of Emerging Countries in


Global Food Security Shenggen Fan and Joanna Brzeska


IFPRI Policy Brief 15 • December 2010 G


lobal food insecurity remains a serious problem. In 2010, more than 900 million people are still hungry, and progress toward reaching the first Millennium


Development Goal of halving the world’s proportion of malnourished people is off track by a wide margin. But the global environment within which food insecurity persists is changing in important ways. Emerging countries such as Brazil, China, and India, which have experienced rapid growth and increased integration with the global economy in recent years, have significant potential to contribute to global food security— not only by alleviating hunger among their own citizens, but also by increasing trade and financial linkages as well as technology and knowledge exchanges with developing countries.


The Rise of the Emerging Economies


Although a number of other countries can be classified as emerging, Brazil, China and India have not only become powerhouses in terms of population, food production, and economic strength, but have had a larger impact on the development and food security of other developing countries— through their engagement in international trade, aid, and investment—than have other emerging countries. Even though these three countries have followed three


significantly different development pathways, all have experienced noteworthy growth and development in recent years. China adopted a gradual “firing-from-the-bottom” approach toward reforms that started in the agricultural sector and later moved to manufacturing and services, spurring private investments and rural nonfarm growth and employment. With its accession into the World Trade Organization, China introduced a more open and export-oriented trade system that included reduced agricultural protection policies. In contrast, India employed a top-down reform process that started with macroeconomic policies and the services sector and then moved to manufacturing. Partial policy changes related to agriculture focused primarily on agricultural trade liberalization, with the sector retaining many distortions. As a result, the service and manufacturing sectors are performing much better than the agricultural sector, with poverty reduction driven largely through trickle-down effects. Brazil implemented policies promoting


2010


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budgetary restraint, market deregulation, and an increasingly export-oriented economy. These reforms benefited Brazil’s large- scale commercial farms, largely leaving small-scale farms behind. Economic liberalization policies have thus been accompanied by expanded and better-targeted social protection programs to tackle food insecurity and extreme poverty. Strong economic growth in these three countries has


translated into more dominant positions in the world economy. In fact, the three countries have been among the top 10 largest economies in the world since the 1990s, and their share of global gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to increase in the coming years, with China edging ever closer to the dominant position held by the United States. The three countries’ performance in reducing poverty and


hunger has been mixed, however. China has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty, cutting the share of people living on less than $1.25 a day from 84 percent of the population in 1981 to 16 percent in 2005 and reducing the number of poor people from 835 million to 208 million.1 Yet poverty reduction has been uneven over time and across China’s regions and has been accompanied by a steep rise in inequality. In India, despite a significant reduction in the proportion of people living in poverty (from approximately 60 percent to 42 percent between 1981 and 2005), the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day increased from 420 million to 456 million between 1981 and 2005. Brazil reduced the number of poor from 21 to 15 million (from 17 percent to 7 percent of the total population) between 1981 and 2005. All three countries have experienced decreases in


GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX THE CHALLENGE OF HUNGER: FOCUS ON THE CRISIS OF CHILD UNDERNUTRITION


the proportion of their population that suffers from undernourishment. The share of undernourished people in China fell from approximately 15 percent to 10 percent of the population between 1990–92 and 2004–06, or from 178 million to 127 million undernourished people. Similarly, Brazil experienced a decline in the rate of undernourishment from 10 percent to 6 percent (16 million to 6 million undernourished) during the same period. In India, however, despite a modest drop in the proportion of undernourished (from 24 to 22 percent), the number of hungry increased from 210 million to 252 million during the same time period. Moreover, India accounts for 42 percent of the world’s undernourished children.


Adato & Hoddinott


CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS IN LATIN AMERICA


Johns Hopkins


Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options | Nelson, et al.


IFPRI


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