MARKET ANALYSIS
must have licences, thereby effectively
barring full MVNOs—it cannot be tech-
FACTFILE
Data provided by WCIS
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nically as a virtual operator. OPERATOR SYSTEM ON AIR 9/2007 7/2007 5/2007 3/2007 1/2007
At launch Virgin publicised the Cell C GSM 9/18 November 2001 3,535,000 3,445,000 3,382,700 3,348,000 3,316,000
characteristically aggressive target MTN GSM 9/18 June 1994 13,523,700 13,107,200 12,905,700 12,750,000 12,556,800
of a ten per cent market share by MTN WCDMA 2100 June 2005 605,000 574,400 406,500 280,000 237,500
2011, specialising in high-spend us- Vodacom GSM 9/18 June 1994 22,383,600 22,100,900 20,810,600 19,829,870 19,356,900
ers. But the 100,000 customers it Vodacom WCDMA 2100 December 2004 991,500 947,700 815,200 733,000 670,800
announced in May leaves it with a
hill to climb—another four million
or so are needed.
In November last year, the MVNO’s Source: World Cellular Information Service
CEO, Sajeed Sacranie, left the company,
to be replaced by Peter Boyd. It was a
move that some observers attributed
in part to the firm’s disappointing operator winning the subscriber for applied for a WCDMA test licence
subscriber acquisition rate. its administration costs. at the close of 2004 but has yet to
The policy of chasing high spend- The carriers have expressed launch a service.
ing subscribers, majoring on post pay concerns that MNP might prevent In the mobile TV space, MTN has
monthly contracts and electing not subscribers from seeing out their stolen a slight march on market
to subsidise high end handsets is at two-year contracts, as the operators leader Vodacom, though. Its DVB-H
odds with Virgin’s strategy elsewhere are barred from denying porting service, launched in October 2006,
and possibly with the South African requests. was the first mobile TV offering in
market itself. Some 82.6 per cent of Experiences gained over the first Africa. The launch was restricted to
South African mobile subscribers year of MNP operation suggest that a trial user base of less than 1,000
were prepay customers at the end of the operators’ worries may have customers because MTN had not
2006, according to Informa Telecoms been unfounded. Cell C said several secured the requisite broadcasting
& Media. months into MNP operation that licence, and it remains very much
Virgin may have been banking on only 23,000 subscribers had taken in the background of the operator’s
the introduction of mobile number advantage of the capability, and that offering.
portability in the South African mar- it had won 40 per cent of the port- While South Africa may be the
ket to provide a boost in the amount ing customers. This 40 per cent was leading mobile market in Africa, it
of subscribers looking to shift from split evenly between Cell-C itself and remains a little way behind other
one provider to another. MNP arrived Virgin Mobile. Vodacom stated only high developed markets. 2006 saw
in November 2006, having been origi- that it had been involved in 20,000 MTN draw eight per cent of its overall
nally mooted in 2004. It was twice MNP transactions, without reveal- revenues from data services. The ma-
delayed at the request of the three ing what portion were inbound or jority of this—79 per cent—was earned
network operators—all of which cited outbound. from text messaging. Both MTN and
technical difficulties that rendered Technologically, South Africa is the Vodafone slashed data prices in 2006
them unable to meet MNP require- continent’s most advanced market. in order to stimulate usage.
ments by the previous launch dates Vodacom, which unveiled HSDPA in Informa Telecoms & Media has
of March and September 2006. 2006, launched a WCDMA network forecast that South Africa will break
The carrier losing the subscriber is in December 2004, having won its the 100 per cent penetration barrier
not permitted to charge the user for 3G licence earlier in the same year. early in 2009, hitting 115 per cent by
switching although, oddly, the receiv- It was only the second player on the the end of 2012. It looks unlikely that
ing operator is allowed to charge a continent to switch on a 3G network, the dominance of the two leaders will
joining fee. It is highly unlikely that with Emtel of Mauritius claiming be effectively challenged as growth
such a fee would be levied, however, first place. MTN followed suit in continues, although the services
as it would serve simply to discour- June 2005, delaying its launch in the from which the carriers derive their
age users from porting. There is a hope of being able to offer superior revenues will doubtless evolve as
rule in place that allows the operator quality and coverage, and a wider- more users are persuaded onto third
losing the subscriber to charge the reaching handset portfolio. Cell C generation networks. ®
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