today would be only weeks away from a bomb.

In that scenario, the U.S. would

MILITARY AND

VETERAN

NETWORKING FORUM

Sept. 24, 2015 6:30 p.m.-10 p.m. Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum, Washington, D.C.

Invite-only event; email career@moaa.org to request your invitation.

www.moaa.org/2015 networkingforum

have been faced with the dilemma of pursuing military action or al- lowing Iran to achieve a virtual nuclear capability. And if today we walk away or Congress votes down the deal, the possibility that Iran responds by accelerating its nuclear program and forces that same choice is very real. It is certainly true Iran would suffer much more in a direct mili- tary conflict than the U.S. But a military strike on Iran’s nuclear program would set it back only a

few years. In the aftermath, Iran would emerge far more determined to pursue a nuclear weapon. And tremendous risks and un- certainties are associated with war, which is why it is an option that should only be pursued as a last resort. As we’ve learned from our 25 years of engagement in Iraq, war is unpredictable and the costs are high. When an im- perfect but credible diplomatic alternative that meets our national interests is available, we should take it.

MO

Pro

TAKE ACTION

Congress has until Sept. 17 to reject or endorse the agreement on how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program. Contact your congressional legislators to voice your opinion on the deal. Visit www.moaa.org/ contactcongress to find your elected officials.

size of Alaska. And even if inspectors do stumble across a suspected site, the JCPOA triggers a dispute resolu- tion process that lasts upwards of 24 days, affording Iran an opportunity to scrub its sites clean of illicit materials. Meanwhile, Iran’s competitors, aware of these monitoring challenges, will be incentivized to explore their own nuclear capabilities. As the Washington Institute’s

Robert Satloff has noted, if Iran is discovered to be in violation of the agreement, the JCPOA envisions one, and only one, enforcement mechanism: “snapback” of U.N. Security Council sanctions. Therefore, even significant Iranian viola-

Con 108 MILITARY OFFICER SEPTEMBER 2015

tions committed over time likely are to go unpunished, especially as entrenched interests, from German businesses to the Russian defense in- dustry, rally against snapback. In the end, no matter how much

we congratulate our negotiators, agreements like the Agreed Frame- work and the JCPOA always will be available to us, provided we make enough concessions. A better course would be to take the advice of another Sherman, who observed after the Civil War that “fear is the beginning of wisdom.” By drawing on U.S. coercive powers, we should compel Iran into a fundamental choice: either your nuclear infra- structure or your economy, but you cannot have both.

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