PARTY CONFERENCES 2013
Show me the data Kate Ashley reports on the value of evidence-based policy. H
ow can politicians use evidence to develop better policy, bring the public along with
them, and be able to admit both what works and what does not?
Ipsos MORI, the Alliance for Useful Evidence and the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) held a fringe event at the Conservative Party Conference discussing the benefi ts and challenges in an evidence-based approach.
The panel was chaired by Geoff Mulgan, chief executive of Nesta, and delegates heard from: Ben Page, chief executive of Ipsos MORI; Jill Rutter, programme director at the Institute for Government; Hetan Shah, executive director at the RSS; and Bernard Jenkin MP, chairman of the Public Administration Select Committee.
Defying the evidence
Page highlighted persistent public perceptions that simply defy the evidence on a number of policy issues – understanding these gaps between belief and reality is vitally important to getting people on board with new initiatives.
“Should departments be required to publish the evidence they use?” he asked. “The majority of people think most politicians are more likely to make policy based on what they think is right,
Timelines and incentives
Rutter said there was a clear gulf between available academic evidence and policy ideas. The current system “doesn’t incentivise demand for evidence,” she warned.
“There are some real barriers when we come to fi nding evidence in Government. [There are] policy makers who want to use evidence, but academic research hasn’t looked at those practical issues that policy makers are interested in; there’s just not much there.”
This has stemmed from timelines which are “completely out of sync” – a politician may need to make a decision within a matter of months, and evidence generation doesn’t currently keep up. Using evidence to evaluate policy means accepting the possibility that initiatives could fail, which takes real courage.
Investing in evidence
Select committees are becoming “a force to be reckoned with,” Shah said, and have an important role to play in ensuring Government accountability. “I don’t want a technocracy where it’s the gurus with the evidence who make the policy, but it would be nice if they sat at the table.”
He added that “the way you perceive evidence depends on how you receive it and who you hear it from” and that people should always be cautious of ‘independent’ reports, as people are all vulnerable to bias, and the decision of who to appoint on those panels could affect the results of any investigation.
The gap between those who gather evidence and those who design policy is “so large that the learning process doesn’t happen” and mistrust makes it worse, Jenkin said.
Trust is a particularly pertinent issue when it comes to evidence and politics, and greater
rather than the evidence. One in fi ve haven’t the faintest idea how they do it.
“Only 13% think they based decisions more on evidence than their gut.”
It’s clear that people use their own experiences and those of their friends and family over statistics, which policy-makers must keep in mind. But people can defer to expert opinion and scientifi c evidence – when it confi rms our own prejudices.
Page said: “Public estimates about a whole range of things are just nuts! People will just cheerfully disagree with known facts and choose the ones they like.”
30 | public sector executive Sep/Oct 13
Policy could benefi t from a move away from anecdote-based evidence, with good quality evidence on both sides of the debate. But Hetan acknowledged that not all political decisions can be “decided purely by evidence”.
There were great opportunities for data- sharing on evidence, but it was “a careful path to be trodden” and there was a lot of work that needed to be done to help practitioners understand what makes a difference on the ground. The Government must be careful not to make short-term cuts in research, Shah warned, and invest in evidence.
“Do we as a nation have the skills to be able to handle the data that we need? The public
agreement between ministers and offi cials could aid the implementation of policy.
“Whitehall works well when there is trust, free exchange of ideas and failure is useful, not blame.”
Rutter agreed that sometimes politicians should introduce values-based policy “just because it’s the right thing to do”. It was imperative to make clear when this was the case, she cautioned.
Evidence is just one part of the process of developing policy, Shah emphasised.
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sector is quite far behind private companies; we need to strengthen data skills in schools and politics.”
The economy is “crying out” for these skills, and there are lessons to be learnt from local government and the devolved nations, Shah said. He reiterated the importance of “taking the public with you on evidence-based policy,” as their understanding of the data is “out of kilter”.
Limits
Jenkin warned that there are limits on evidence-based policy. This is clearest around policy which can be “very emotional”. He gave examples of the badger culls and the UK’s position on Europe: “These questions are about who you are and what sort of country you want to live in, these are not evidence-based questions.”
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