NEWS Review Words | Francine Carrel
It was the best of times... T
The new Global Property Guide survey shows that the long-awaited property boom has already started
he latest Global Property Guide’s survey has been released (26 June), providing
an insightful look into the global property market and revealing an overall trend that shows not just recovery but the start of a boom. The Guide, looking at fi gures for the year to and including Q1 2013, shows what it calls: “The most signifi cant global acceleration in house prices since the boom years of 2006/7.” Using infl ation-adjusted
fi gures, the survey shows that house prices rose in 28 of the 42 housing markets which have so far published housing statistics. The nominal fi gures (the actual price paid, not adjusted for infl ation), show the “depth and breadth” of the boom. In Q1 of 2013, nominal house prices rose in 30 countries and fell in only 12. Infl ation is particularly high in several countries with high nominal house price rises (India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa), so the two sets of fi gures are very diff erent. “The message coming from all around the world is that we’re in a period of ‘super boom’,” Matthew Montagu-Pollock, the author of the guide, told OPP. “I’ve been amazed that this story has not been picked up by the mainstream press. “I’ve been wondering how long we could keep on fuelling property price infl ation by cheap government money. It’s like 2006 all over again,” he continued, echoing the sentiments of many commentators over the last few months. The US housing market has seen prices going up – and going up faster. The S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index soared 8.31% during the year to the end of Q1 2013, the biggest year-on-year
16 Sun shines on global property
increase we’ve seen since 2006. More European markets are showing signs of recovery. One example, Turkey, saw house prices rise 8.13% last year, in contrast with its 1.55% year-on-year decline in the year to Q1 2012.
Housing markets in Asia remain buoyant. In Hong Kong, house
Prices rose in 28 of the 42 housing markets
prices rose 20.14% year-on-year in Q1 2013, compared to an increase of just 2.11% the previous year. House prices also rose in Delhi, Beijing, Taiwan, Tokyo and Thailand. Only Singapore saw a slight decline in property values (0.58%). New Zealand recovered with price rises of 7.23%, while Australia was stable at 0.11%. The Middle
East remains strong, with Dubai its best performer. House prices there saw an astonishing turnaround, rising by 28% in the year to Q1 2013 – compared to a 1% decline in the previous year.
The recovery remains weak in one part of the world: some European housing markets remain depressed. Greece is the world’s weakest housing market, with house prices falling 11.5% in the year to 2013. House price falls have also accelerated in the Netherlands, Spain, Zagreb, Croatia and Russia. The guide concludes: “The latest house price fi gures obviously show that the global housing slump is fi nally over. House prices are rising in more countries than not, and the momentum trend is clearly upwards.”
Read the full guide at www.
globalpropertyguide.com and more detailed information and analysis on the survey and its implications in a full-length interview with Mr Montagu-Pollock in the September issue of OPP Magazine.
www.opp-connect.com
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