THE CASS MONOGRAPHS — A CONTINUING SERIES —
Rail Industry Future: Power and Capacity
WHEN AMERICA’S RAILROADS made the post- war switch from steam to diesel, the cost was off the charts. Obviously the investment had been calculated to pay for itself many times over. Most agreed the change was way past due. Well, get ready, America: Change is com- ing yet again — maybe. It’s still in the talk- ing stages, but when the top brass of the “Big Four” and others are conducting hush-hush meetings in the corridors of Chicago and Hous- ton and assessing the future of natural gas, you know the consideration is beyond casu- al. Natural gas is very much the “in” thing these days. It is plentiful and relatively cheap. Furthermore, as reported in this space in re- cent months, the system known as “shale fracking” has produced volumes of that ener- gy source in places previously unavailable. Pair that with fact that, for example, Union Pacific, America’s largest Class I car- rier, reports that diesel’s upward cost spiral has pushed its fuel and utilities bills to 26 per cent of its overall expenses. The Houston Chronicle reports that compares with nine per cent of all costs in 1999. Natural gas? “The interest level, you would assume, is very high,” according to Doug Longman, an Argonne National Labo- ratory Researcher. He tells Zain Shauk of the Chronicle that “The railroads would re- ally like to be able to use natural gas in their locomotives. [But the actual mammoth con- version project itself would be] a cost issue.” A new locomotive comes in at an estimat- ed cost of $2 million. Caterpillar and West- port (the latter a manufacturer of natural gas engines) are planning to manufacture and sell gas engines for locomotives. Not sur- prisingly, given the fact that the rail indus- try itself is very cautious on actually moving forward, no actual timetables have been an- nounced for the project.
Converting already existing diesel-elec- tric locomotives to natural gas would come in somewhere between $600,000 and $1 mil- lion, according to Canadian National, which is running a test rain on about 300 miles of track in Alberta, Canada.
Moving and Storing? Okay, so where to store it? Well, remember the little coal cars behind the old puffers? Well, now the thinking is they may make a comeback (of sorts). Those “tender cars” used to store wood and then coal behind the steam locos could make a comeback as large tanks for liquefied natural gas. It may be awhile before you hear any bold announcement on all this. Professional envi- ronmentalists, who until recently had tout- ed natural gas as the “green” wave of the fu- ture, now have found problems with LNG: another reason for caution to avoid making the proverbial leap from the frying pan into the fire and all that.
Bear in mind that we are approaching
this “fork in the [rail]road” — however gin- gerly — with the hope that the traditional claim that moving freight over the rails is three times more fuel and emissions effi- cient than highway haulage remains intact.
But with diesel prices up 300 per cent over the past 15 years, industry leaders are — let us say —“pausing to reflect.” Tim Buckley, an investment manager for Arkx (a firm with a focus on “clean energy developments”) writes that, “Combined with a longer term ambition to replace diesel lo- comotives with high efficiency electric alter- natives, it is likely that rail operators will continue [increasingly to] leverage the effi- ciency advantages that they enjoy. Add to this equation such developments such as battery recharging for locomotives through regenerative braking and tougher, legislat- ed, safety standards, it is safe to say that the future potential of rail is significant indeed.” (Italics added — W.V.)
Outlook For Rail Per Se The rail industry will have a crying need for expanded capacity in the future years. The question is: Will the political process accom- modate that demand on the part of both freight and passenger interests? Politicians are lining up for one or the other. Some for both. But many acknowledge it will be diffi- cult to make room for both.
Freight For the years ahead, according to the Associ- ation of American Railroads (AAR), the best way to meet the increase demand for “safe, affordable, and environmentally responsible freight transportation will be by the freight rail network.” That can be accomplished “by keeping reasonable regulations that protect shippers and consumers while giving rail- roads freedom to operate in the competing marketplace; by reforming the current cor- porate tax code to enhance economic devel- opment and promote job growth; and by en- tering into mutually beneficial public/ private partnerships with railroads to solve critical transportation problems.” While many outside the industry would agree to the goals mentioned above, the po- tential snags, are (as usual) in the details. For starters, many shippers believe the rail- roads should have increased regulation (not deregulation). And then there are those who will argue over whether and/or by how much our corporate tax (recently cited as highest in the world) should be cut. The
four largest railroads (privately
owned and operated) on the whole spend far more on their respective rail networks than the vast majority of state highway agencies in states where they operate.
Passenger
Amtrak President Joseph Boardman says if only rail infrastructure investments were on an equal footing with dollars spent on high- ways and airports, “Amtrak could realize its opportunities to expand capacity and bolster operations to better accommodate growing ridership, which has reached record levels the past eleven months. Amtrak for 41 years has been at the center of a big transporta- tion debate on Capitol Hill (see hearing re- port below).
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