activity such as off-highway vehicles blows to the mountaintops, where it accelerates snowpack melt.
Jerla said the goal of the Study is to consider how water demand and supply could evolve over the next 50 years, understand what type of imbal- ances people may face and think about actions to help resolve those imbal- ances. “Due to the scale of the Basin, the magnitude and timing of projected imbalances, and the broad needs of the Basin, a variety of options are being considered,” she said.
Future population growth is a key factor in analyzing the various supply-demand scenarios. Las Vegas, above, was once one of the nation’s fastest growing cities, but when the recession hit, that growth stalled.
Quantifying the projected water demands of each state under the six scenarios “was a difficult piece of the Study” and “something that had never been done on this Basin,” said Jerla. “The demand assessment is not perfect; but it is a very good first step,” she said. “The projected demands under the six scenarios vary by about 20 percent in the year 2060. There are differ- ing thoughts about which population projections should have been used in the different scenarios and how much urban water use efficiency should be as- sumed in some of those scenarios.”
Honing state demand scenarios “will
future water needs,” he said. “Since we are looking at six future scenarios, we really have a strong bracket of potential futures.”
He said the Study also shows that targeted investments in augmentation projects and additional water con- servation programs “can protect the Colorado River and restore the river so that it reliably and sustainably meets current and future water needs.” Expanding the size of the Colorado
River Basin’s water supply portfolio through a multistate pipeline is not a new concept and will likely remain a discussion item in the near future. Critics of the idea say supports of such a pipeline should carefully consider the long-term viability of such an under- taking.
Watch a video about the effect of snowmelt by the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)
likely continue after the Study and we will be thinking about these demands will inform future studies on the Basin,” Jerla said.
Beckwith questioned the wisdom of projecting increased water needs when the overall trend in the Basin is reduced water use. A “conserva- tive” estimation is another 40 percent reduction in per capita water use by 2060, he said. “We think the population projec- tions are high in some states and we don’t think the Study adequately cap- tured the improvements that we will see in per capita water use,” he said. Cullom said he was pleased that Reclamation worked directly with the planning agencies in the states that developed the water use projections. “I think there is a very robust set of data for current trends and projected
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“When evaluating proposed projects, it is important to remember that water conveyance projects can only generate reliable water supplies if they tap into reliable water sources,” says a June 2012 report by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), Pipe Dreams: Water Supply Pipeline Projects in the West. “In short, water proj- ects that rely on
unreliable sources could lead to future shortages for the very communities that pay for these expensive facilities.” Instead, the NRDC report says water managers should choose from a range of alternatives to new pipeline projects, including urban and agricul- tural water-use efficiency, voluntary water transfers, water recycling and improved groundwater management. “The success of efficiency efforts
can be seen today across the West,” the NRDC report says. “Many of these less environmentally disruptive alternatives are more reliable, more affordable, less vulnerable to climate change impacts, and less energy intensive than tradi- tional water development projects.” Large municipalities need to find new funding for more incentive-based conservation programs, Cullom said, adding the current pricing and incen-