climate change. “One major piece of reconciling future flows projections is to refine our data and models so that we can understand how the future may vary,” she said.
Kightlinger said one of the goals of the Study is to evaluate options apart from the traditional agriculture to urban transfers.
“The Basin Study examines options for policymakers to see if a dif- ferent path forward is preferred and is cost effective,” he said. “The states are working together in the Basin Study to explore options to share water between states. The Lower Basin states have been cooperatively sharing project funding and water supply credits in recent years and this trend is likely to continue if not expand.”
Conservation Corps members removing invasive tamarisk by hand with chainsaws along the Dolores River, a major tributary of the Colorado River.
Supply augmentation options range from those that require “some real heavy lifting to those that are more logical,” Kightlinger said.
developing water supply programs and partnerships.”
“The Law also adapts as conditions change,” he said. ”Examples include the Interim Surplus Guidelines, Quan- tification Settlement Agreement and Intentionally Created Surplus, which allow for programs that could not have been implemented 15 years ago.”
Feasible Next Steps
Projecting multiple supply and demand scenarios for the Colorado River Basin is no mean feat and the Study is far from the last word on the subject. It is clear the process is not a perfect one and is continually impacted by updated research data and improved technology.
Read about Colorado River climate change in the Foundation’s Winter 2011 issue of River Report
“The imbalances observed in the Study are too large to be resolved by any single approach or project,” said Cullom. “To reliably bridge the imbal- ances, it will take an ‘all of the above’ approach, including implementing large-capacity augmentation projects, as well as conservation, ag to urban transfers, and reuse.”
Jerla said future efforts will con- tinue to refine knowledge about how the river’s flows could be impacted by
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Pitt said some solutions will emerge “as more feasible next steps,” and that officials will then have to account for things such as energy footprint, cost, environmental impact and permitting hurdles.
“When we think about possible
futures there are so many variables,” she said. “There are a handful of possible future demands, a handful of possible future supplies, a handful of possible packages and solutions that you realize in order to do analyses you have to multiply everything by everything else so it just grows exponentially. Because of that complexity, it will be hard to draw firm conclusions.”
Integral to long-term sustainability is the continued reduction in use, activ- ists say. “We believe the 90 by 20 target is a realistic, Basin-wide marker,” Beckwith said. “Some communities like Tucson can likely go further. For others, 90 will be a challenge.”
Commenting on the Study, McCool said that ultimately, “reality will force the change” of future water management. “We can anticipate change, we can prepare for it and it will lessen the