JUNE 2012 |
www.opp.org.uk
Tolga Kesiner Tolga Kesiner is a director at award-winning Turkish real estate developer and agency the Turkish Property Centre. Since 2003 the TTPC Group has built 390 villas, penthouses, duplex apartments and commercial units, building over 49,900m2 of land with sales of £55 million.
tolga@ttpclimited.com
In the past few years we were really thinking in Turkey if this was the perfect dream to follow ... or were we obsessed? Had we become so blind that we couldn’t see the facts and the problems of Europe?
T
My guess is that we were the only country which was thinking of joining eurozone without becoming a member of EU.
It seemed a good idea at the beginning when you think that 50% of our exports go to Europe and we will be member of that Union soon. But what has happened in the past three years has changed so many ways of thinking here. We are beginning to question the merits of EU membership ... and of course, the Euro itself.
Our goverment has done many positive things in Turkey and for the Turkish economy for the past 10 years.We have a stable and strong currency. This has helped the foreign buyers - especially European buyers - to save their investments and also to earn at level at least at Turkey’s rate of infl ation. That’s why they could easliy come here and buy properties with their on currency.
“Turkey has come to an end of an era. We are starting to question now if we really want to be part of the European Union ... or will we be in a better position if we focusing on alternative markets?”
On the coast line of Turkey, foreign buyers can buy properties with Euro, Sterling or U.S. dollars. However in big cities like İstanbul nearly all the projects are sold using Turkish Lira.
That happened because many companies lost money due to the exchange rate, as it did not increase as much as the infl ation rate in Turkey.
Furthermore, after the crisis in Europe,
the market started to focus more on local buyers. Slowly, the euro started to go out of daily life.
Wİth the current problems surroding the Eurozone, Turkish developers that are selling to overseas property buyers are mostly focused on Russian and the Middle East market at the moment. For this reason the Tuırkish goverment changed the law recently, so that now there are no restrictions for any nationality to buy a property in Turkey. On top of this they increased the amount of the land they can buy in Turkey. This move is telling us that the country doesn’t have big hopes about the European market picking up, and at the very least not for some years. New projects which are coming on the market are mostly being positioned for clients in Turkey or Russia, as well as the Middle East countries. From here, the future of the Euro does not look very bright. Turkey has come to the end of an era.We are starting to question now if we really want to be part of the European Union ... or will we be in a better position if we focus on alternative markets? Turkey will look to the east in search of markets more than we look to the west for some time. How long is anyone’s guess.
he European Union has always been a been a big target to reach for the Turks for more than 40 years.
FEATURES Various
In view of the huge range of opinions on this subject OPP is expanding the number of voices in the this column to take into account a number of very different views expressed in leading blogs and newsletters. For more information please contact OPP Magazine’s editorial director.
john.howell@opp.org.uk
he fi rst is the view of Simon Johnson and Peter Boone, as expressed in the Huffi ngton Post. Their view is that the Euro is a dead man walking and that, once it has failed, economic chaos will inevitably ensue. They highlight the paralysis of European politicians. Their opinion is that is “already nearly impossible” to save Greece’s membership of the Euro area. More contentiously, they cannot except that Greece will be the only country that has to leave. “Greece’s exit is simply another step in a chain of events that leads towards a chaotic dissolution of the Euro zone”.
T
They point out the huge and hidden costs already assumed by the tax payers in other countries as a result of the money that has been pouring out of Greece, Spain and some other countries. While local people and multi-national businesses alike have been taking hundreds of billions of Euros out of countries they see to be dangerous, the European Central Bank has been quietly and automatically replacing that money through its Target2 payment system. This is the system that gives banks within the Euro zone access to the low-cost loans from the ECB. “The end of the Euro system looks like this,” they say. “The periphery suffers ever deeper recessions – failing to meet targets set by the troika and their public debt burdens will become more obviously unaffordable. The Euro falls signifi cantly against other currencies, but not in a manner that makes the Eurozone more attractive as a place for investment.” This article has produced a huge level of response in which all sorts of opinions are expressed. Most are broadly supportive of the author’s view: “the Greeks got onto the European currency and proceeded to have a party on the Germans’ credit card.” However, others differ. “The Doomsday prediction couldn’t be more far away from reality. It is the dream of the Anglo-American fi nancial world,” one comment says. “Ever since the Euro started they tried to write it down because there was a threat to the USD as a world currency. We will have the
Euro over here tomorrow, next year and further on.” And: “Mr Johnson’s analysis on European Union and the Euro is beyond
belief. The greatest strength of Europe and European Union is the creation of a single currency, the Euro.
“The problem with the Euro is not thte use of a single currency but rather
fi scal and monetary policy.” A fi nal comment on this point: “From here on out, the alternatives have
been discussed to death and are as clear as day: either the ECB and the global central bank syndicate infl ates away the debt, which can only happen if Germany gives the ECB a carte blanche to print up the $3-5 trillion required to backstop the European fi nancial system, or we proceed straight to an instance of ‘odious debt’/ debt moratorium/write down. With trillions in daisy-chained... liabilities, the outcome would be a tremor that shakes the very foundations of the fi nancial system.”
What is clear from all of the blogs and newsletters that I have read on this subject is that the ‘Doomsters’ heavily outnumber the optimists. More interestingly, a week or so ago I would have said that the optimists were outnumbered about three to one. Now it seems closer to fi ve to one and growing.
THREE WISE MEN | 43
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