Refinery Optimisation
Closing the gap between planned & actual performance Small incremental changes can make huge differences to the competitiveness of a refinery. Software technology solutions provide a realistic method of closing the gap between planned and actual performance and will be critical to helping achieve long- term commercial success.
By Eric Petela
REFINERY OPTIMISATION IS a complex business. Plant managers across the globe face constant pressure to achieve commercial targets. Fundamentally, a key part of the operational planning process relies on setting accurate goals, whereby planning and scheduling, process modelling and day to day plant operations are important tools to help set the targets and achieve them. Management often encounters more
almost certainly be a ‘gap’ between planned and actual performance. A small percentage variation in the production process or delays in scheduling can be costly and equate to plant inefficiency. For executive decision-makers, this could have a significant impact on planning and forecasting for
The world of refineries is not a linear process
questions than answers. Why do the Linear Programming (LP) models not reflect reality? How do we cope with continuously changing targets? Why are we not performing to expectations? The optimal plan will typically be a ‘stretch’ target.
... there are always a broad range of variables and fluctuations to manage
their whole operation. On the positive side, this could mean the actual selling price is higher than expected or opportunistic purchases. Conversely, the effect might be negative, causing less throughput, lower yields and product quality giveaways. Primarily, there are two types of
‘gaps’: The unanticipated event that has a big impact with a large gap across a short timeframe; and the on-going margin leak during normal operation with small gaps over a longer period of time. Overall, the gaps are likely to have a negative impact on refinery profitability levels. Recent experience of leading process
industry software company AspenTech has found that the typical gap between planned and actual financial performance is about 5% ... but it is not uncommon to see a gap of 10% of gross margin. For a mid-size refinery, at today’s margins, that represents a potential financial loss of up to $20 million per year. It’s hardly surprising then that for most refiners, closing this gap is one of the largest (non-capital)
It may not factor certain constraints like tankage,
but it will account for plant availability whilst not assuming any product quality give-away. The world of refineries is not a linear process. In
reality, there are always a broad range of variables and fluctuations to manage. As a result, there will
52 March 2012
improvement opportunities today. So, from the perspective of the planners, it’s
important to ensure that plans are as accurate as possible from the outset of the process. In order to best achieve this, planners need to be consistently questioning their models.
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