MECHANDISER
Annual Power Demand Forecast (TWh)
Historical Electricity Consumption
Forecast Electricity Consumption
coal to the margin. Generators will be forced to either install CCS or retire their capacity”. “The black-out plays an iconic role in British
history – first with World War II and the Blitz, and then the industrial strife of the 1970s. The UK is embarking on an historic shift in its electricity supply, and commentators and critics have continually raised the spectre of the lights going out once again across Britain. Our analysis shows that, barring unforeseen circumstances, it is not going to happen,” says Michael Liebreich, BNEF Chief Executive. Beyond 2020 the picture is less clear as
Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, DECC, National Grid
plants will be upgraded or may install carbon capture equipment – notwithstanding the current challenges with the technology – but we will not see another boom in new-build, fossil fuel-based plants. Although coal-based generators in the UK are currently
enjoying higher profitability than gas-based ones, the report highlights how this is set to change. Potskowski commented; “Coal plants without carbon
capture technology face a grim future in Great Britain, as plants are hit by the full cost of buying carbon permits at auction, along with the carbon price floor. This will push
uncertainty over technology costs, power demand and plant retirement is magnified. The large fleet of existing gas and coal plants
are likely to provide the flexibility to balance demand as intermittent resources become more predominant. “However, these plants will need to receive adequate remuneration – especially as they might only operate occasionally,” say BNEF. This suggests that the current ‘dash for gas’ in the UK could be its last as there is little need for additional carbon-emitting thermal capacity beyond what is built this decade. The white paper is available for download at:
http://bnef.com/WhitePapers/download/64
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