News analysis
around 40,000 jobs in areas it serves. The document does, however, admit that many responses to the consultation were ‘sceptical’ about HS2’s ability to stimulate growth. Plans for high speed rail still envisage a Y-shaped network
going to Manchester and Leeds. Unlike the line from London to Birmingham, now due to open in 2026, the Y-network (known as Phase 2) wouldn’t be ready until 2033. According to an updated timetable, consultation of the Y-routes will begin in the autumn. The costs of high speed rail also appear to have been revised slightly – Phase 1 of the line from London to Birmingham is now expected to cost £16.3bn at 2011 prices, while the rest of the network should be delivered for £32.7bn. Phase 1 costs, according to the document, have an optimism bias
allowance of 64 per cent. But, according to the secretary of state, at present values, the whole network would generate benefi ts of up to £47bn and fare revenues of up to £34bn, over a 60-year period. The document also states that the economic analysis carried out by HS2 Ltd indicated a cost benefi t ratio for the completed network between 1:6 and 1:9. But, in addition, HS2 Ltd forecasts that the Y-network will generate signifi cant additional wider economic benefi ts as it will enable businesses to operate more effi ciently. However, it’s also noted that there would be additional
disadvantages, such as the impact on the natural landscape, which have not currently been quantifi ed and which would need to be considered in assessing overall value for money. The command paper also had another stab at selling high speed rail as environmentally friendly. Labour’s original paper appeared to overstate it’s ability to cut carbon emissions, so much so that the previous transport secretary, Phillip Hammond, faced with evidence from those opposing HS2, had to draw back to a position where he was forced to admit that, at best, the line would be carbon neutral. The latest edict from the government takes a slightly different tack, suggesting that more than 90 per cent of domestic transport emissions are currently generated by road transport; it then goes on to state: ‘Inter-urban rail supports economically vital journeys between our cities, but it is also a key component of a low-carbon transport system.’ It further claims that conventional diesel trains provide a
lower-carbon alternative to travel by road, and that electrifi ed rail can deliver further benefi ts. Later it states: ‘Rail is a comparatively carbon effi cient mode, generally creating signifi cantly fewer carbon emissions per passenger mile than either car travel or aviation. Even allowing for the fact that power usage increases with speed, the high levels of passenger usage that high speed services tend to attract mean that, per passenger, carbon emissions remain comparatively low.’ On the blight issues that have made HS2 so controversial, the
government seems to be giving more information about what it intends to do. Another document, published on the same day as the command paper, says that for those affected by the route of HS2, the government wants to ‘do all it can to offer assistance and support’. It will introduce a package of compensation measures over and above the statutory minimum, including a refreshed hardship scheme and support for those affected by construction. There will also be measures to simplify the compulsory
purchase process, plus a sale and rent-back scheme to give homeowners within special safeguarded areas more fl exibility. The government is expected to draw up detailed proposals for consultation in the spring. Along with more news on blight and
‘Hammond was forced to admit that the line, at best, would be carbon neutral’
compensation came a slightly clearer picture on timings for both HS2 and the second phase of the high speed network to the north. Also taking place in the spring will be a consultation with statutory bodies on the ‘safeguarding zone’ for Phase 1, while HS2 Ltd is expected to provide the government with advice on Phase 2 options. The spring will also see an ‘engagement programme’ along
the Phase 1 route on environmental impact issues, and the latest timetable suggests that a new blight scheme should be in place by the autumn of this year. At the same time, what’s described as an ‘engagement programme’ on Phase Two will begin to discuss local views and concerns. One of the biggest milestones comes later next year, when the government will introduce the hybrid bill into parliament. It will provide the necessary powers to construct and operate HS2. There’s no information on how long its passage through parliament might take, but with something as controversial as HS2, it can’t be rushed!
■ See Wright Track, pages 16-17, for comment on HS2
PETER PLISNER is The BBC’s Midlands business and transport correspondent:
peter.plisner@
railpro.co.uk
Medical expertise with first-class service levels helping to increase productivity, reduce absenteeism and minimise risk.
Rail medicals
Drug & Alcohol testing Occupational health Health surveillance Physiotherapy Counselling
Blood testing Skin assessment Travel health Vaccinations Wellbeing
Customer Service Team
020 7500 6900
www.expressmedicals.co.uk
MARCH 2012 PAGE 15
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40