In the face of robust opposition to High Speed Two, the government has had to
produce a wealth of statistics to justify going ahead with it. But, so far, the statistics seem to focus on the wrong elements of the project’s potential benefits, says Robert Wright
High speed
number crunching T
he slow rumbling of plans for a new high speed rail line in the last few months has often resembled the progress of a vast dumper truck over cars at a demolition derby. There has never been any doubt the behemoth would eventually, slowly make it over the obstacles. But it has been interesting to see
precisely what got crushed on the way. Sure enough, on 10 January, Justine Greening, the transport
secretary, emerged from the dumper truck’s cab to declare a ‘historic day’ as the government overcame – to at least its own satisfaction – the many objections to its plans for a London to Birmingham high speed rail line. According to the government’s version of events, there will now be smooth progress towards construction of the line, with the first trains running into Birmingham’s new Curzon Street station in 2026. Yet it must, by now, be evident to all but the most wide-eyed
enthusiasts that the arguments about route, funding and traffic projections provided a far bumpier ride for the high speed rail plans than anyone anticipated. The once widespread support for the principle – if not for a specific route – was one of the most obvious items wrecked. In its place are suspicions about the government’s motives and confusion about why so much money is being lavished on such an apparently small stretch of the country’s infrastructure. A significant caucus of Conservative MPs along the route have declared more or less open opposition. The economic case for undertaking the project has also deteriorated to the point where, were this not a flagship project, it might well be abandoned. The question, consequently, is whether HS2, if it was ever
The main argument for high speed rail is that the West
Coast Main Line is almost at full capacity, with demand expected to grow
PAGE 16 MARCH 2012
worth building, remains so. I continue to worry that such a high proportion of the country’s future transport spending is due to be lavished on a project that, on paper at least, looks considerably worse value than many other road, rail and airport projects. I would love there to be some more cost-effective way of achieving HS2’s stated aims than the project as currently laid out. But, even
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